Gameweek 5 - Premier League - 25/26

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Welcome to the Gameweek 5 Newsletter where we will look at this weeks Matchups. As its only Tuesday, I will include my predictions but as always they will be subject to change up until the deadline

But first lets do a GW4 Recap:

Predictions: 8/10 (which brings us to 23 out of 40 to date)
FPL Team: 63 Points. (Saved by Semenyo and VDV, the bad luck keeps rolling.)

Now lets jump into the Gameweek 5 Matchup Analysis and we will also look at the xStats for the teams before and after we adjust for the fixtures:

1) ARS vs MCI

I have to agree with the matchup above. ARS have looked the steadier team over the first 4 weeks despite some bumpy fixtures. Defensively they have been insanely good even with some injuries only conceding one wonder goal from LIV last week. This week the attack looked to click against NFO. Chemistry seems to be there already with Eze and Madueke providing the perfect kind of threat - one takes on his man, the other takes his time. Personally see ARS attack improving from here despite injuries to Odegaard and Saka.

MCI are by far and away the best team for actual xG Non-Pen up until now, and most of this is flowing through Haaland. MCI have injuries of their owen that they are dealing with, which looked like it was hindering the attack but the xG generated against MNU this week reassures me the attack is still good. The defense has been a problem for MCI, Rodri is now back, as is Gavrdiol and Donnarumma is now in goal (remains to be seen how impactful he is). I see this being a close affair but will give the advantage to ARS seeing at how Arteta sets up in these big games and tries to slow them down.

Prediction: ARS

2) BOU vs NEW

Very tough game to call, one of many this week. NEW are top defensively this year for Non-Pen xGC. But they have played AVL who havent scored a goal yet, LEE and WOL who both rank near the bottom of the table for xG. They conceded 3 to LIV but only just. I believe the NEW defense is robust BUT they now have a Champions League game this week against PSG which will be their priority and it could take it out of them by the time to get to BOU.

BOU on the otherhand are on an upward trajectory and have looked good at both ends of the pitch with Semenyo turning into the main man. Semenyo himself loves playing at the home ground which is where they will be playing again this week so that is two home games in a row and playing against a NEW side which could be leggy after PSG. BOU should we well rested for this game and also have momentum going into this game looking to capitalise on a tired NEW. I dont think there will be many goals in this one and it could be a cagey 1-0.

Prediction: BOU

3) BRI vs TOT

Initially, based on form and xG the matchup favours TOT. But after adjusting for fixtures it appears to favour BRI albeit the “Draw Zone” is where both percentages lie. TOT’s forward line hasnt been too impressive, its been their backline delivering on both ends of the picth. They look to be monsters at set pieces under Frank. BRI are also a mixed bag. They put up a good fight to BOU with Minteh looking particularly threatening.

Cons - TOT play in Europe this week, so same as NEW above back to back away games may work against them. BRI are at home and a have a full week to prepare. I wont decide on this game until later in the week, based on the above variable I would stick with a draw. If TOT did not have the european game I probably have them to edge it over BRI.

Prediction: Draw

4) BRN vs NFO

NFO did not have a good game against ARS and lost Murillo along the way. New coach and yet to be seen what the new identity will be. They still have a great squad which should be strong enough to beat BRN on a normal day. But they do play a cup match during the week against Swansea so we will need to see what happens there.

BRN put up a brave fight against LIV nearly holding them out completely until a last minuted penalty dashed away an important point. That said LIV generated up to 2xG Non-Pen against them, they really should have scored at least one before that point. So despite BRN brave efforts they are still ranked bottom for defense in the league. I have a feeling they only setup this way to try and play for the draw against LIV. Against NFO they will need to change up and attack some more if they want to put points on the board, which will play into Ange’s hands.

BRN have also now lost Ugochukwu in MF to a Red Card which should weaken BRN’s defensive prospects. For those reasons I expect NFO to want to make the most of this opportunity for points.

Prediction: NFO

5: FUL vs BRE

The Stats seem to favour FUL here and even more so after the adjustments. I didnt expect to see BRE stats fall given they have just played and drew against CHE and in some ways were actually the better team. But this needs to be put into context, CHE did put out half a B-Team for this game and in the end it cost them 2 points. Taking nothing away from BRE who got the last minute winner from a throw in - and all without Damsgaard who was ill.

FUL as usual are just not good at scoring goals. The only reason they beat LEE was a freak own goal. So I am weighing up which is more likely in my mind - that LEE actually are a good defensive team and so I should cut FUL some slack (because NEW also didnt score against LEE). Or that FUL were just bad going forward. FUL attack actually kicked into gear after some substitutions were made in ESR, Jimenez and new boy Kevin coming on who really changed the game.

Schade looked a big threat against CHE in the game, but looking at the stats overall for that game BRE had 7 chances, one of which was the last minute goal from the throw in which and had an xG of 0.65. If you remove this, BRE only had an xG of 0.53.

Another one which I cant decide on, two defensively ok teams with limited attacks, but if FUL make the tweaks to their attack and include the players mentioned above (or bring them off the bench fresh for the final 30 mins) I can see them stealing it.

Prediction: FUL

6) LIV vs EVE

Whislt LIV left it very late to finish the job against BRN, they had plenty of chances and it was just one of those days were they were up against a stubborn deep block playing for the draw. I dont expect EVE to be the same type of game as its a Derby and EVE are a more attacking side now.

EVE struggled to score against AVL this week, but this was more down to Martinez having a great game more than anything else - they did creat the better chances and probably deserved the win. I think this derby could be a fun game. EVE were not troubled much in goal by AVL but that’s more down to AVL’s attack not having scored a single goal this season. EVE defense has still shown its not brilliant (yet) and LIV should have enough to score some given they are also at home.

Note: Salah had no shots in that BRN game and only had 1 key pass which are worrying signs as he is my captain this week. Happy to play Ndiaye just cause he is on penalties and EVE will look to score.

Prediction: LIV

7) MNU vs CHE

MNU’s attack is surprisingly ranked 1st after we adjust for fixture difficulty. They had ARS away and MCI away in the first 4 games and generated plenty of xG against both teams, so the attack still has a lot of potential and they are underperforming. Against MCI we see that the same problems keep coming up again. The CM partnership isn’t strong enough to handle the opposition MF of big team. The reason that is important is I dont think they will do weel against the partnership of Enzo and Caicedo.

That said I would not be surprised to see MNU score a goal (probably through Mbuemo) but I also see goals for CHE as the back line just doesn’t seem settled. I am not sure what Amorim is doing chopping and changing the back three over and over. I am not sure what he is doing with the wingbacks either, dropping Dorgu for two games being the main surprise. He seems insistent on playing Shaw who I think isn’t up for it either. But I am biased (and frustrated) as a MNU fan so dont read into the above too much.

CHE did draw this week, but as I mentioned its because they put out half a B-Team. I am not a Maresca fan, last season I saw him make rotations a number of times which seemed unneccesary and it always backfired and cost CHE points against weaker opposition. The same thing happened against BRE. He benched Cucurella and yet he played Pedro who surely had more a grueling journey home from Brazil. CHE will play Champions League this week giving MNU a bit of an advantage in preparations, but I am losing faith in Amorim as he will not change his tactics to suit the game.

I expect CHE to not rotate as much against MNU and Palmer is now back also who looked ready to go when he came off the bench and scored.

Prediction: CHE

8) SUN vs AVL

As a Watkins owner I can only pray - but its not looking good. AVL’s attack as I mentioned has scored no goals so far this season and are now ranked 19th - only better than their opponents SUN.

Meanwhile SUN have shown they have defensive nerve, whilst I believed they overperformed until now they were very impressive in keeping CRY out and but on a convincing performance, especially their GK. This is bad timing for AVL who now need to travel to SUN’s home ground.

SUN so far look to be a team that benefits a lot from playing at home which does not bode well for AVL. I am balancing this with the idea that AVL need to do something quick to start getting goals because they are getting desperate. With Martinez back in goal I expect their defense to improve as well.

Bottom two attacks agains each other, ok defensive stats. I will go with the draw.

Prediction: Draw

9) WHU vs CRY

CRY have been the better team this season so far. They have however lost some impetus in attack now they are without Sarr and Wharton. But CRY really should have scored against SUN given the amount of chances they had but SUN were just in the mood to keep them out. New signing Yeremi Pino looked good and had some good chances - he should be able to fill in for Eze.

WHU again fell apart against TOT but they did go a man down. Prior to that they were a goal down. It’s not looking great for WHM as least defensively; they have been shipping over 3 goals minimum in all games this season. This bodes well for a CRY attack that has Mateta up top. WHM attack has looked a little better with the addition of Summerville and new signing Fernandes, also Paqueta has renewed his commitment to the club for what could be his final season. But they are coming up against a CRY team who have a very good defense - CRY have not lost a game in 14 games. If they started now it would surprise me. They may struggle for goals but defensively they know what they’re doing.

Prediction: CRY

10) WOL vs LEE

WOL have gotten off to a horrible start, no points on the board after the first 4. They have not been generating much in attack with JSL out injured. However they had a tough run of games and we need to consider the fact that this game is an early relegation battle in their eyes so they will be keen to get a result against LEE.

LEE have been holding their own since promotion, especially defensively. But I need to look at these defensive numbers a little more because 5th is a high ranking - they played an EVE side at home before Grealish joined and EVE had their fair share of injuries at the back. They played ARS and were beaten 5-0. NEW who had now strikers at the time and played with Osula and Murphy up front - and then FUL who are not the best attacking team as is. So I’m wondering if they have been a little lucky defensivly to be this high up on the table.

WOL and LEE have had an equally tough fixture run over the first 4 but WOL have played the more potent attacking teams in BOU and MCI. I think this game could go either way - WOL will be hungrier for it, but LEE look to have some momentum and cohesiveness in their defensive shape.

I cant decide right now so I will put down a draw until I think about it further - the data above shows that LEE are the more favoured team but please note - WOL had a similar matchup against NEW way from home and only lost by one goal. They now play LEE at home whose attack and defense are both ranked lower than NEW’s respectively.

Prediction: Draw

Summary: