Gameweek 1 - Premier League - 25/26

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Welcome to the GW1 Newsletter where I will do a matchup analysis for each match and share my thoughts on each.

As there is currently no xG Data for the start of the season, I am relying on Elevenify’s Team Strength tables to make the below matchups - the data used can be found on Elevenify’s website.

1: LIV vs BOU

This game seems a little more clearcut than the others (at least on the surface) simply because of the Summer’s both teams have had.

LIV have the strongest attack in the league and they are coming up against the 9th best defense in BOU. However LIV have strengthened their attack with Wirtz, Ekitike, Frimpong and Kerkez this summer, this will add a lot of pace to the squad especially on the wings.

BOU however have lost 4 of their 5 backline from last season (Kepa, Huijsen, Kerkez and now Zabarnyi). On top of the BOU have not had a fantastic pre-season, being beaten by MNU 4-1 and WHM 0-2. They did however beat EVE 3-0 prior to that. Kluivert, one of their key players is still not back in training, which could hinder their attack slightly - the one thing in their favor is the LIV backline might need time to gel.

They could score a goal with the talent in Evanilson and Semenyo, but overall LIV look to be the stronger team in this matchup and the could score 3 goals.

My guess : LIV to Win

2: AVL vs NEW

This looks like a hard matchup to predict - AVL and NEW showed last season that they are full of goals and also can be defensively robust when they need to be.

AVL are having a very good preseason, at the time of writing Watkins has 5 goals, Malen and Rogers have a number of goal contributions as well.

NEW on the other hand are not having an ideal pre-season with their best player (Isak) not training with the squad. On top of that they have been pipped to nearly all of their transfer targets in the market and have not really been able to build on the current squad. They have a great signing in Elanga but its nearly offset by the loss in Isak (at least for now).

Looking at last seasons stats, both teams are fairly even but what I remember is AVL having very solid end to the season, especially in Defense and in Home Games. Rogers could be injured but Emery has said he does not think it is that serious, so Rogers could return for the game which will make the attack so much better.

NEW on the other hand look a little more depleted in attack now that Isak is not their and also now it looks like Gordon has suffered an injury - its not yet clear if he will be fit for GW1, but even if he is Gordon has shown that he is not as efficient in the CF roll compared to when he is on the wing.

For these reasons, I think it will be a close match but AVL have a number of advantages over NEW given the contrasting pre-seasons, the morale at NEW and AVL also have a number of players returning from injury so they now have more depth in attack. The numbers favor NEW slightly but the other factors make me think AVL could come away with a result.

My guess: AVL to Win

3: BRI vs FUL

This is probably the hardest game to call, as BRI and FUL are always a mixed bag. You don’t know what version of BRI are going to show up - they have all the attacking talent but sometimes don’t deliver when you expect them to. Same goes for FUL but from a defensive perspective.

FUL were in the top 5 last season for xGC non-pen (per Fantasy Football Scout) behind ARS, LIV, CHE and NEW. However, they were in the top 4 for xGC underpeformance - only behind WOL, IPS and LEI (and BRI right behind them in 5th). So the point I’m trying to make is FUL are very capable in defense but just had a bad season - they should revert to the mean this season and keep more clean sheets.

Looking at BRI, they are stronger in attack but also worth noting that they overperformed their xG last season by 5 Goals (per Fantasy Football Scout). This was 5th highest overperformance behind NFO, WOL, ARS and BRE (with FUL in 6th). On preseason form, BRI have won all but 1 of their 8 games and FUL have won all 4 of their games.

On Transfers, BRI have lost some big players - these include Estupinan, Adingra and most notably Joao Pedro. For incomings a lot are relatively unknown or younger players apart from De Cuyper who has now filled the gap in the fullback roll and is also taking set pieces.

FUL on the other hand are pretty much as you were from last season with no significant incomings or outgoings. This should only bode well for them as the squad is quite a cohesive unit with a good manager. The only loss at the time of writing is Sessegnon (arguably one of their top players) may now be injured for GW1.

Overall this game is very hard to call. With BRI unpredictability in attack and FUL the same in defense its anyone’s game on day 1.

My guess: Draw

4: NFO vs BRE

I may have spoke too soon with BRI vs FUL being the hardest game to call, this game is a close second. NFO have not been massively depleted during the summer, with only the loss of Elanga to the first team. However as can be seen from above, NFO ranked 15th for xG last season despite the amazing season they had. They were the top overperformers in xG last season, largely due to Chris Wood’s efficiency which we saw tail off at the end of season.

Their xGC Non-pen last season was not bad though (9th) and they actually underperformed by 3 Goals (per Fantasy Football Scout). They have also had some transfers in which will bolster the squad most notably Igor Jesus in attack. So what is evaluation of NFO? So far its not looking great in terms of goals, but it is still looking good in defense as the backline remains unchanged with two quality CBs and GK. To make this point - in preseason NFO have scored only 1 goal in 7 games. They have also only conceded in 1 of 7 games (3-1 vs FUL).

Moving onto BRE, cant help but feel sorry for them as they were picked apart this summer - Mbuemo, Norgaard, Flekken, the coach Frank and potentially Wissa is on his way as well. These were all key parts of what made BRE so efficient. So they have a lot of adjusting to do without these players, but if any team can pull it off its BRE - they have been in positions before where they have lost key players and looked unaffected by it as they operate as a system and are very good at lining up replacements for these players.

Thiago already looks like a good replacement for Mbuemo or Wissa should he leave, and Kelleher is an incredibly talented GK. Lets not forget that they have brought in the experienced Jordan Henderson to possibly fill the gap left by Norgaard.

BRE’s defense remains largely unchanged, but still ranks 14th (per Elevenify’s tables). Preseason wise, there doesn’t seem to be a lot to report, they played 4 games which were all close affairs so BRE are a bit of an unknown at the moment.

Given how BRE are the team in transition and NFO remain largely unchanged, with a tight defense and home advantage I am inclined to think NFO get barely get the job done if Chris Wood can find the efficiency he had last season. But would not be surprised to see a Draw either.

My guess: NFO to Win

5: SUN vs WHM

For me I feel like a lot of people could potentially be sleeping on WHM this season. I dont expect them to improve to a large extent but I do see them improving.

Consider the following - they have a top class manager in Graham Potter and have now had half a season and a full preseason under his management. This should be enough time for Potter’s style of play to be instilled in the team. They have a talisman in Bowen. They are playing a 5 at the back system, which is where Kilman shines. Two very capable wingbacks in Wan-Bissaka and Diouf. Also, Paqueta has now returned to the squad who is an excellent player (albeit not FPL wise). They have also signed a quality GK in Mads Hermansen from LEI. Fullkrug may as well be a new signing given his issues last season and he has been scoring in preseason and likely to play alongside Bowen up top. To me they feel like a team that have their pieces in place.

SUN are also a team they have shown they have a point to prove based on their activity in the Transfer Market. They have signed Adingra from BRI, Xhaka (former ARS player), Le Fee (Key loanee from last season) and now Marc Guiu from Chelsea along with a few more. However a few people have noted that SUN were a league below the other two promoted teams (LEE and BUR) last season, so while these transfers show promise will it all click for them right away?

I cant pretend I know much about SUN, but in preseason they have struggled with the only significant win being 1-0 vs Augsburg. I also hear that they are a counter attacking team which is what WHM were not too long ago under Moyes. Apparently the Tacticos are big fans of the SUN coach so I am trying to consider that as well. SUN also have the Home advantage for their first premier league game of the season.

I think the game will be a battle, but I feel like the quality WHM have has been lying dormant and should reveal itself this season - Potter will want to win the first game of the season against a promoted side and has they players to do it.

My guess: WHM to Win

6: TOT vs BRN

The League Data from last season shows the difference between TOT’s attack and defense, courtesy of Ange’s tactics. However this year I expect the Defense to improve quite a bit under a tactical coach like Thomas Frank. TOT’s defensive lineup was never bad in my opinion, its just the style of play that left them open so often. Porro and Romero have amazing qualities both in defense and attack, while Van de Ven has shown he is a reliable CB and Udogie has a lesser but still impressive attacking threat from the other side. It remains to be seen who the first choice GK will be for TOT, but with the signing of Palhina from Munich, its hard not to believe that they will shore up the Defense.

The attack is another story - whilst TOT have amazing attacking quality, they have lost a leader in Son, Maddison is going to be out for most of the season and Solanke is still unfit and has not played in preseason. There are still the likes of Johnson, Kulusevski, Richarlison, Tel and now Kudus as well but the attack still looks a little unsettled at the moment.

BUR were the best defensive team in the championship last season, breaking a record for least goals conceded in a season. With that said its no secret that they massively overperformed there xGC last season - mostly due the CB Duo and Trafford who made incredible saves. Trafford has now earned his transfer to MCI and one of the back duo has left the squad as well. BRN however have been active in the transfer window bringing in 13 new players, including an experienced GK in Dubravka, experienced Defenders in Tuanzebe and Kyle Walker, and two CHE boys in Broja and Ugochukwu.

BRN may not be as bad off as initially feared but it doesn’t change the reality that they overperformed last year in Defense, were light on goals in attack and the step up to the Premier League is always a big one for promoted sides.

TOT’s preseason has been a mixed bag with a win over ARS and draw to NEW, whilst also losing 0-4 to Bayern which we wont read too much into. BRN preseason shows they Won 2, Drawn 2 and Lost 2 - with a low scoreline in most of those games, so its hard to assess.

I think TOT’s attack will suffer in the short term due to injuries but I also expect their defensive prospects to increase. They are also the home team for the first game and I just have faith in Frank as a manager who adjusts the tactics based on how the opponent plays. While BRN may improve with their new transfers, I think TOT should have too much quality for them, but it wont be a walk in the park for TOT.

My guess: TOT to Win

7: WOL vs MCI

While the matchup data says that this should be a clear win for MCI, its not that straightforward given all the unknowns and variables around MCI. Some bottlenecks were revealed last season - meaning their setup was overly reliant on certain players for that setup to work. Without Rodri, they didn’t exactly adapt very well. Haaland suffered from lack of service. They have many wingers who didn’t make much impact and they didn’t have a settled back line, with Gvardiol being the mainstay. Foden was missing all season. Despite all that, they still had 2nd highest xG non-pen in the league last season.

They have made some transfers which look promising, and there is also an additional attacking outlet in Marmoush to take on some of that burden from Haaland. Assuming Foden can get back to himself, the attack should do perfectly fine again this season. However at the time of writing Rodri is injured (which we know has a big impact on the team), as is Gvardiol and Foden but hopefully new signings Reijnders and Ait-Nouri can do a job until they return.

WOL had a tough season last season but through the shining lights that were Cuhna Strand Laarsen and Ait-Nouri they managed to go on a run of results which meant they were safe from a relegation battle at the end of the season. Cuhna and Ait-Nouri have now left, which just leaves Strand Laarsen who is an underrated player and can do well for WOL - but take this with a pinch of salt as WOL xG Non Pen was 15th last season, which will struggle even more without Cuhna and Ait-Nouri.

In better news for WOL, they were the biggest underperformers defensively last year - they were 13th for xGC Non Pen (ahead of MNU, TOT, BRE, WHM) and conceded 69 goals from an xGC of 58.66 (so 10 goals more than they should have). WOL have also made some signings this season most notably John Arias who will contribute a lot to the team.

I expect MCI to put last season behind them on the opening day of this season, but with WOL being at Home, defensively underrated and MCI still missing Rodri I think it will be a little more cagey than expected. On the flipside, WOL have not won a preseason game in 6. I feel like MCI will win, just hard to predict if it will be Cagey or if MCI make a big statement.

My Guess: MCI to Win

8: CHE vs CRY

CHE look to be favorites here based on team strength but it doesn’t tell the whole story. CRY won a cup last season and just went toe to toe with LIV to win the charity shield. CRY in my opinion are the full package - their back 5 is insanely good, Henderson is an amazing GK, Wharton brilliant in MF and the attack of Eze, Sarr and Mateta just has something about it. When they click, they are an amazing team.

CRY were 7th for xGC non Pen last year and 7th for xG Non-Pen. So they are performing like a team that deserved to be in Europe. With no significant outgoings (yet), its hard to see how CRY don’t kick on this season with new motivation and confidence from everything they have achieved. Admittedly the squad may struggle later in the season with European commitments, but from the outset they should be ready to go. Same backline, same forwards, it all looks good - only things to change this are if Eze and Guehi are snapped up by other clubs. In preseason Mateta has been scoring plenty goals and CRY have scored in all but one of their games.

As for CHE they too had a great season last season despite their troubles in attack once Palmer had his drought. They were 3rd for xG Non Pen and 3rd for xGC Non-Pen. They too won a trophy last season and beat the Champions League Winners for another trophy - all this without too many changes to the team. Pedro and Delap as a duo are a clear upgrade in attack and will unlock Palmer and Neto, they should be more clinical this year. Pedro has slotted right in and looks to be linking up very well with Palmer, having a fresh pair of legs in Delap every game is also a useful weapon.

With all of the above said, I think this will be an even matchup - both teams were consistent in attack and defense last season. Both teams are largely unchanged (except for Pedro and one other attacker for CHE). Both teams are off the back winning two trophies, I think both teams will be ready for battle - whilst CHE may have slightly more quality I think it will be an even game.

My guess: Draw

9: MNU vs ARS

ARS may not have had a pristine preseason, but I expect them to do just as well if not better than last season. They have only added to the Midfield and attack, most notably Gyokeres and Zubimendi. With ARS having the most reliable defense in the league, a midfield which now gives more license to Rice and Odegaard, and a top No. 9, I imagine they will start to put more goals away which has held them back in prior seasons. ARS main issue is not having a solid outlet on the left side, but perhaps that is a role that Havertz can now utilise as he will no longer be playing No. 9.

MNU have made some major signings to revamp the attack, which was needed. They underperformed last season by 10 goals and even then, they had an xG Non-Pen ranked in the bottom 10. So xG was bad but actually scoring was even worse. In the most recent friendly against Fiorentina, there were glimpses of what Amorim is trying to get out of his attacks with Dorgu and Cuhna linking on the left and Amad and Mbuemo linking on the right. However they barely had open play shots on target which shows the problem is still being worked on. The Defense also had a few slip ups which surprised me, the goal they let in was pretty bad with an unmarked man at the back post - something ARS of all teams feed on.

I think MNU will improve but I dont know if it will be right away - this game is unpredictable because of the history between these two teams and the added element of both strikers now playing against the clubs they rejected in the summer with a point to make. Given how well drilled Arteta’s team are, and now that they finally have a no.9, I think they will get a result - but MNU are so unpredictable, despite no goals for Mbuemo or Cuhna in preseason, Sesko could be the piece that makes it click. For now I have to think ARS have the experience to get it over the line.

My guess: ARS to Win

10: LEE vs EVE

I was very keen on EVE to win this game easily until very recently. They have a few injuries with Mykolenko being the most recent and their preseason form hasn’t been great. But with the latest additions to the squad which include Dewsbury-Hall and Barry, and the return of Dwight McNeil, the attacked might be able to find their feet against newly promoted LEE.

Under Moyes, EVE were an solid defense last season ranking in the top 6 for xGC Non Pen last season (tied with MCI). One thing I am worried about is EVE seem to perform poorly at the start of seasons, but I dont know if there is any reason for this - its just been consistent from then depsite the underlying stats they dont get the results. This year could be different.

LEE were far and away the best team in the Championship last season, and they have a lot of history in the premier league and will be glad to be back. Like the other promoted sides I cant say I know too much about them; I remember some players from last time around including Gnonto and Dan James. Last season a lot of their xGC stats were down to the GK position - Meslier did not have a good time and was eventually benched for second choice GK. They now however have a bought a new keeper for the new season along with some recruits in Defense and Midfield.

As my knowledge on LEE is not the strongest, I will look at what we do know and not overthink it. EVE had a top 6 defense last season. Moyes is good manager who has them playing well. They have recruited in attack for more goals. LEE are playing at home, have had a good preseason and are motivated to be back in the league. In the last 7 games last season, EVE beat NFO, FUL and NEW away from Home (all decent defensive sides). That is the key decider for me.

My guess: EVE to Win

The Value Pick(s):

Every week I will look at teams I think the Markets are undervaluing, which could also translate them to being undervalued in FPL Terms.

This week my value pick is:

WHM