Gameweek 2 - Premier League - 25/26

Welcome to the Gameweek 2 Newsletter where we will look at Matchups, the Potential Value Pick(s) and predictions.

But first lets do a GW1 Recap:

• Predictions: 7/10 (not bad, when you consider we called both draws)

• Value Pick: WHM - Failed (so we are at 0/1 for the season)

• FPL Team: 54 Points all out (very middle of the road).

Now lets jump into the Gameweek 2 Matchup Analysis:

1) ARS vs LEE

ARS once again showed why everyone praises them as the best defense in the league by holding off MNU at Old Trafford, albeit they were lucky with MNU hitting the post and having 22 shots in the match. But ARS showed that grinding out a clean sheet is a key part of winning matches and they got the result. The attack is another thing - whilst ranked third in attack, and recruiting the likes of Gyokeres in the summer, the attack left a lot to be desired this week and didn’t show much against MNU (but this could be because MNU have also improved in defense). Still, you would expect some attacking threat - in the game, they racked up 9 shots with 4 of them outside the box and one of them being th Calafiori goal which was more down the GK error. Gyokeres had zero shots and was subbed off early.

LEE on the other hand surprised me - they didn’t only beat EVE, they outperformed them on all fronts. 21 shots (only 3 on target) and scored the only goal from a penalty, but very attacking none the less. They also held EVE to zero shots up until the 54th minute, so defensively it was a pretty good performance. LEE are still of a mixed bag to me with all chances spread about there attack and no clear talisman.

This week ARS play at home, while they might consider themselves lucky to have gotten a result when they were not the better team, I think that’s the kind of result potential champions are made of. They will see this game vs LEE as an opportunity to kickstart their season. Do I expect them to score many goals? Not after the performance LEE put in this week, I expect them to have a major confidence boost coming into this game. I also don’t expect ARS to concede this game and to be an ever present danger on set pieces. Although LEE wont be as easy an opponent as I would have thought, I still think with ARS having the added incentive of getting points early on in the campaign despite having the worst opening run of games, they will really try to put this one to bed early on. If I look at the game like potential champions vs newly promoted team, ARS have the talent to get past LEE’s defense, even if the attack has not yet clicked.

Prediction: ARS

2) BOU vs WOL

BOU once again showed why their attack is something all teams need to be wary of with them slotting 2 past LIV this week - but I need to remember that this was partly down to LIV having a poorer than usual defensive display as they are settling in. The same can be said for WOL, they conceded 4 to MCI - but its MCI, so we cant read into that too much.

BOU had 10 shots against LIV, with 8 of those in the box. Despite the 4-2 scoreline, the xG suggest that LIV overperformed meaning the defense is not as bad off as initially feared (maybe). Semenyo, Evanilson, Tavernier and David Brooks all looked good.

WOL had 9 shots against MCI, with 6 of those in the box - however these were all low xG and WOL only racked up a total xG of 0.52 (less than 1 goal). That said Strand Laarsen looked good as the tip of the spear for WOL - whenever he did get a shot it looked dangerous. Strand Laarsen however looked bandaged up in the game however on both his leg and wrist so I’m curious if this will slightly hinder his performances in the short term.

This game is a tough one to call, both teams lost their fixtures away from home to 2 of the top 3 sides in the league. Both have lost players this summer - BOU in defense and WOL from all parts. Given the home advantage and BOU’s potent attack which is building on its chemistry from last season, I would marginally give this one to BOU although I wouldn’t be surprised if Strand Laarsen scored, he finished last season very well and looks to be the main man now in Cuhna’s absense.

Prediction: BOU

3) BRE vs AVL

AVL did not get off to the best start this season - it was surprising that they didn’t have a single shot in the first half against NEW. Despite going a man down they held out for a draw in the end, but I think the performance overall warrants a change of tactics from Emery. Going into the BRE game I expect AVL to lineup with a little more fire power (i.e. perhaps Malen will come into the team who knows how to shoot) and they will be also be eager to kickstart their campaign. Worth noting though that AVL had the lowest xG of all teams this week - so personally I think they will need to react to that by scoring some goals.

BRE did not perform too badly against NFO, they had 10 shots with 3 SOT (1 of which was the penalty) but all the chances were pretty low xG. Also worth noting they lined up without some key players Daamsgard and Schade (who came on later in the game). It is a bit early to write BRE off, they have a new coach and they brought in some good players (Outtara from BOU) so they could still surprise given how well run a machine BRE has proven to be in the past.

This week I feel like BRE will put up a fight at home to AVL, but I have a lot of faith in the AVL attack with Watkins and Rogers so good for goals last season (and Watkins in preseason). They also have a rock solid midfield with Onana and Kamara, which managed to keep NEW out despite them going a man down when Konsa was sent off. I am discounting the poor attacking performance from AVL because they were playing a robust NEW side which probably had a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove given all the drama in the transfer window. The same could be said for BRE however, they played a charged up NFO side who look excited to be playing in Europe.

My gut is saying that AVL are just a step above BRE in attacking quality, their GK put on a great performance vs NEW as well and they have pretty much the same group of players as last year so they should be relatively settled compared to BRE.

Prediction: AVL

4) BUR vs SUN

I don’t have a lot to say about this one as I am not familiar with either team. Out of the two, SUN looked very good this week in attack and beat WHM 3-0, a result that really surprised me - I am discounting the drubbing though as it was relatively close in xG, the WHM GK had a bad game letting in 2 easy goals, but SUN still capitalised on those chances. As a result, the confidence must be very high in the team.

BRN on the other hand lost 3-0 to TOT at the weekend, but they were not that bad - they managed 14 shots against TOT (albeit all low xG shots) but they had their attempts.

Both newly promoted sides generated nearly the same xG - 0.73 for BRN and 0.72 for SUN, yet 1 of the teams won 3-0 at home and the other lost 3-0 away. This time BRN will be playing at Turf Moor which leads me to think this game might be a lot closer than what people are speculating, which is SUN to beat BRN all based on one performance.

For me, initially I was in the SUN to win camp also. On further reflection, I don’t know enough about either team and based on the performances in GW1 I think it will be a fairly even game. BRN will need be desperate to get points on the board early on, now that SUN and LEE both have 3 points on the board already. Given Parker’s defensive tactics, the game is a turf moor and its against a SUN team which they placed above last season, BRN will fancy their chances. SUN will also though so for me I think it will be a close result.

Prediction: Draw

5) CRY vs NFO

Another very hard game to call given all the variable. Although CRY may appear the stronger team out of the 2, there is the following variables that make this blurry - CRY have been demoted to Conference League, NFO have gone back up to Europa League in their place. So already some drama their. Second, CRY have a European game on Thursday against a Norway side (but they are at home) so not sure how much of the first team will play for that game. Last but not least, there are still ongoing transfer saga’s with Eze and Guehi to consider - by the end of the week one or both could be gone or dropped from the team.

So how did both teams perform this week - CRY drew with a strong CHE side and nearly beat them if not for the VAR correction (happy i predicted the draw). There is not much to say that I haven’t already said, they have a good defense and are good in attack, they managed 12 shots against CHE (6 of which came from Eze, so if hes missing it could really hurt their attack).

NFO also had a good outing, but against a much weaker team. In typical NFO fashion they scored 3 goals but from an xG 1.76 - Chris Wood’s efficiency is back at it again. Whilst NFO looked good in attack, you would not think they only had 11 shots against a weakend BRE side. When I see a team who overperform xG a lot like NFO do, I always tend to be cautious - which is why I didn’t have Wood in my team last season and it nearly killed me week on week.

I rate CRY defense very highly, if we combine that with the fact that NFO are normally overperforming in attack I think it will be hard for them to score in this game. NFO are also tough in defense, so as the graphic above suggest - CRY attack is the only thing splitting these teams for me. Whilst initially I predicted this game to be a draw I am starting to think that CRY could put NFO away at Selhurst Park, the only thing that is itching my mind is the Conference League game on Thursday. If most the team are rested I think CRY should win. If however they put out a strong lineup then I think they could be slightly tired and the result end up a Draw. At the time or writing (Tuesday) I am going to predict CRY to just edge out NFO but this is assuming nothing major happens between now and then (i.e. the loss of Eze).

Prediction: CRY (Draw if we hear Eze won’t be playing)

6) EVE vs BRI

Another tough game to call. A decent Attacking side vs a decent Defensive side. BRI as predicted did not create that many big chances against a defensive FUL and scored from a penalty. They nearly came away with the win but conceded the equaliser in extra time. Whilst they have a lot of potential in attack it just doesnt look like it has clicked for them yet.

EVE had a game to forget against LEE. The had zero shots up until the second half against a newly promotod LEE side which I found surprising given I though the attack would improve this year. They have added to attack with the likes of Grealish and Barry, neither of which started against LEE, so perhaps when they come in we will see some improvement. It was the defense which was the real surprise, although they only conceded from a penalty, somehow LEE managed to 22 shots away, 4 in the 6-yard box and 12 in the box (including the penalty). Missing the likes of Branthwaite and Mykolenko may be having a stronger impact on the backline than I initially thought.

Another thing I want to consider is EVE will be playing in their new grounds, which will not exactly feel like home to EVE just yet. Perhaps this will effect their confidence in some way, but it has yet to be seen.

Given BRI are now playing a second defensive team in a row, Hurzeler should be tweaking things to get the most out of the attack against these teams. Also, when you consider how EVE struggled against an attacking LEE side, why wouldn’t the same happen against an even more attacking BRI side?

This one feels like the CRY and NFO game, a lot of variables to consider - new attackers for EVE, missing defenders for EVE, new home ground for EVE. It’s EVE that look like the unsettled outfit out of both teams, they were also a little unlucky to concede the penalty. I think I need to go with a Draw for this one, EVE’s attack could click if Grealish, Barry, Ndiaye and KDH all contribute.

Prediction: Draw

7) FUL vs MNU

Despite the matchup analysis, I am willing to go the other way on this one given what I saw at the weekend. MNU were so good against ARS - they looked a different team with a better attitude and had 22 shots against ARS (the best defense in league) whilst also limiting ARS to only 9 shots (5 ITB including the GK error which led to a goal). A great performance from MNU even if they didn’t get the win.

MNU fire power just looks good right now (but I dont want to get too excited admittedly I am a MNU fan), Diallo and Mbuemo linking up on the right and Dorgu and Cuhna linking up on the left - both duos already look like they have good chemistry. Dorgu hit the post against ARS, Cuhna showed that individual character and attitude that carried WOL last season, Mbuemo was efficient getting all 5 shots from the same area (similar to what we saw at BRE), all we were missing was the presence of real No.9 so perhaps Sesko could be the missing piece. Defensively MNU were sound too, De Ligt had a great game and seems to be working well with Yoro.

FUL have shown they lack a lot of attacking threat again this week vs BRI. Whilst they did get the draw, it was down to a last minute goal from supersub Muniz (who is linked with a move away). They only 7 shots, with 5 in the box. I do rate the FUL defense, but going into this game they are missing their first choice fullbacks. This is bad news going up against a MNU side who have attack primarily from the wings with both duo’s previously mentioned.

Again, I want to remain unbiased when thinking about this game and when I consider all the above there is plenty of evidence there to suggest that MNU should open their scoring for the season against FUL - whether or not it will be a high scoring affair is another thing. That is the main reason I am cautious; until MNU show that they can score the goals and given they are against a FUL side who can defend with decent players in Lukic and Berge in the CM position, I will pick MNU to edge this one - but not by much.

Prediction: MNU

8) MCI vs TOT

MCI looked very good in attack against WOL this week, reminding of what they were like the first season Haaland arrived. He had barely any touches but still had 4 chances and generated over 1 xG, scoring twice. MCI did this without Rodri or Gvardiol - they instead they had Ait-Nouri and Reijnders both of which had very strong debuts. With Reijnders, Bobb and Haaland, it looked like they have being playing together for a long time - the chemistry was just good. No Ederson, who could be on the way out which meant Trafford (a very capable keeper) started and WOL did not test the backline much outside of a few chances from Straand Larsen.

TOT beat BRN comfortably and showed a disciplined defensive performance. The attack performed well together - Kudus created 5 chances from the right hand side and was a nuisance all game while Richarlison looked very impressive, will be interesting to see if he starts ahead of Solanke for this game. I was more impressed by defense (even if it was against BRN). Under Frank, it looks like TOT will be prioritising set pieces - evidenced by the 2 shots CB Van de Ven got in the game. Porro also played quite advanced with 3 chances created. This is also before the introduction of Pahlinha into the starting 11 who I presume will start against MCI further bolstering there defense.

While I think TOT will not be there for the taking with the new focus on defense, I do think MCI are finding their rhythm again - they have many creative outlets to feed Haaland now (Doku, Savio, Bobb, Marmoush, Foden, Reijnders) and with John Stones back to fill in at CB and Trafford looking to impress, I just see MCI coming back to full strength. For me, MCI should have too much for TOT at the Etihad but we need to also consider the influence of Frank’s tactics - he has come against Pep many times with BRE and Pep has never been shy of praising Frank’s coaching and tactics. I don’t doubt he has a plan for this game but given its still early days at TOT I think MCI should see it out.

Prediction: MCI

9) NEW vs LIV

This will be an interesting game, there is no love lost between these sides with all that has happened on the Isak front. LIV scored 4 goals past BOU which we are not surprised by given how they have recruited but they also conceded 2. With 2 new fullbacks and Frimpong potentially tweaking his hamstring, the LIV does look a bit shaky and were caught on the counter attack for both goals.

NEW were very impressive against AVL, all they were missing was their goal scorer. I sometimes forget how strong a side NEW are - decent defense that are used to playing together, three powerhouse midfielders that could turnover any team and three pacy work horses as their front 3. The only thing letting them down is that Gordon is not a natural CF. Even when AVL went down to 10 men, NEW still couldn’t put the game to bed which is a worry.

I don’t think this game is very clear cut, Elanga will up against Kerkez (or Robertson which would benefit him more) and Barnes will be up against Frimpong if hes fit or Gomez if Bradley and Frimpong are both not fit - and there in lies an opportunity for NEW. VVD has been slightly error prone in more recent times (or maybe I’m just imagining that he has been) and could face some trouble with the pace of Elanga, Gordon and Barnes.

Part of me wants to say the NEW will get a draw out of this, but seeing how they fare without Isak is not good viewing - in there last 7 games without Isak, they have only scored 3 goals and have not won any of the 7 games. They may score against LIV but I think LIV have enough experience to score a few themselves.

Prediction: LIV

10) WHU vs CHE

I would not say that CHE had a great game against CRY this week. The attack looked a little disjointed, there was not much action from Palmer and Pedro which all the hype was surrounding and Gittens was taken off after 57 minutes. This is partly due to how solid CRY were. CHE had 19 shots in that match but only 3 SOT. Defensively they didn’t do too bad without Colwill conceding 5 shots in the box with some good saves from Sanchez.

WHM who I selected as my value team last week, completely disappointed. They didn’t even generate 1 xG against a newly promoted Sunderland side despite some of the talents they have and a full season under Potter. Its early days but the signs don’t look good. The GK was largely at fault for 2 of the goals but even so SUN still had the chances to take. A draw would have been a fair result which still doesn’t say a lot about WHM - they had more shots than there opponents (11 vs 10) but all of them were poor chances. WHM’s biggest weakness right now seems to be the duo they select for the middle of the park which was Rodriguez and Ward Prowse.

CHE came up against a robust CRY side, I dont expect WHM to be at that level - WHM’s midfield issues and lack of attacking threat against CHE’s strong midfield in Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez, decent back 5 and talismans like Palmer and Pedro in attack seem to point to one thing and that’s a CHE win. My main worry is that the attack is still settling for CHE and they need to get an early goal to shake of the nerves, which they should be able to - they also need to pick up a win as soon as possible to avoid slipping if they are to be potential title contenders.

CHE are the stronger team here in my opinion, Maresca needs to get his attacking tactics right and utilise Palmer - CHE fans seem to think he should be playing Palmer from the right hand side. Still there is enough talent in the CHE squad to win this game, given WHM struggled against the newly promoted SUN.

Prediction: CHE

The Value Picks(s):

CHE

Its only Gameweek 2 so selecting value picks is still challenging as we are learning a lot, but I’m picking CHE to be the pick this week. CHE did not get off to a flying start but we need to remember that playing CRY is like playing a top 6 team in their current form.

I believe CHE are slightly undervalued by markets this week for the following reasons:

• Attack will look to get going after the rough start at CRY (motivated?)

• Defense not looking as bad off as initially feared without Colwill.

• Believe CHE could be underestimated because of the average game they played against CRY - but I rate CRY highly. At the same time, WHM were my value pick last week vs SUN and they didn’t perform.

• Good bench options such as Delap, to make a difference if needed.

• 4th Strongest attacking + 4th strongest defensive team in the league.

WHM Cons:

• Look very light in MF, should be beaten by strong pairing of Enzo and Caicedo.

• Defense looks altogether weak, evidenced by the types of chances SUN managed to create this week.

• Attack looks to be lacking, Paqueta doesn’t seem interested leaving Bowen as the only real threat.

• 15th worst Attack + 14th worst Defense.

FPL Gameweek 2 Team:

Below is the squad, very happy to be rolling this week - looking to hedge my bets on the NFO defense in case Eze does play. BRN have pretty decent defensive odds according to markets so will start Esteve over Williams (or I could still start Dubraka instead of Sels). Either way, I will be going with one NFO and one BRN defensive player. The only player I am currently worried about who I may need to move on sooner than expected is Ndiaye - but its still too early so will hold for another week.

Those are all my predictions for Gameweek 2. If you have any feedback on the above feel free to give a shout on X.

Also, would love if you could share this newsletter with a fellow FPL enthusiast - as of right now I am shadowbanned on X, apparently my posts were too spammy so need to take a break for 7 days before trying again!

Thanks,

The Tortoise