EU policies and global trends reshaping land use demands

November 2023

Policies and development trends have considerable impact on territorial development and land use. This has not at least been addressed by the Territorial Agenda 2030 (Abre numa nova janela), which highlights the need for a better understanding of impact of future developments – including trends and policies – on different types of places in Europe. It calls for stronger considerations for the territorial sensitivity of regions to ensure that policies achieve their objectives and trends can be used to stimulate wanted developments.

Taking this one step further, a recent study conducted for the Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations of The Netherlands (Abre numa nova janela) looks at potential land use impact of EU policies and global trends on the Netherlands (Abre numa nova janela). The study was conducted to support the process of drafting the new spatial strategy of the Netherlands.

It looks at a selection of five global trends and five EU policies. The trends include the increasing shift to renewables, working from everywhere, accelerated digitalisation and omnichannel futures, global geostrategic plans of others and the tyranny of merit (Abre numa nova janela). The EU policies include the European Green Deal, EU circular economy action plan and strategy, EU Biodiversity Strategy, Connecting Europe Facility and Europe Fit for the Digital Age. This is certainly only a small number of trends and policies, but it allows for some insights into different types of land use impacts.

Using a foresight-oriented approach, the study identifies key elements for each trend and policy, pinning down the main characteristics relevant for assessing the impact on land use changes. Possible impacts on the fields of politics, economics, the environment, society, and technology, based on these key characteristics, have been identified. These identified impacts have been further assessed concerning their potential consequences on different types of land use.

The overall aggregated picture suggests, that the reviewed EU policies and trends, especially the ones concerning the green transition, such as the European Green Deal, point at an expansion of agricultural and natural areas. They are also expected to contribute to the need for more transport related land use.

Below we present some quick teasers to stimulate further thinking about the land use impacts of policies and trends.

Expanding Transport Land Use

The European Green Deal is expedited to increase the land use demand for transport infrastructure, such as railways and waterways. The commitment to sustainable transportation is set to transform land use patterns. The completion of Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) projects will further amplify these changes.

The transition to a circular economy is expected to reduce the need for transport between industrial facilities. This will help to decrease the demand for land in some areas.

At the same time, the accelerated digitalisation trend and the shift towards remote work will also play a role in changing the demand for transport land use. As more people work from home, the need for commuting is reduced. This may however be compensated by new mobility and transport patterns linked to leisure activities. Also, the shift to omnichannel futures and instant delivery of online orders may risk to generate more transport and thus prevent a decrease of land use demand for transport.

Reshaping Residential Land Use

With increased investment in transport infrastructure through the Connecting Europe Facility, the connectivity of different regions will significantly affect the demand for residential space in areas experiencing better connectivity. More connected regions are likely to see an increase in demand, while less connected areas may experience a decrease.

The growth of technology industries and the rise of remote work will contribute to higher demand for residential space, particularly in prosperous places with a high quality of life.

Adapting residential buildings to utilise renewable energy sources may further increase the demand for space for construction and residential land use.

Migration pressures, both voluntary and forced are expected to grow. They may also lead to an increased demand for housing, especially in thriving regions. Additionally, societal divisions, e.g. driven by the tyranny of merit, may increase the demand for residential space in particular areas, further intensifying these changes.

The overall impact of the trends and policies on residential land use remains rather inconclusive, as they discourage urban sprawl but also encourage the expansion of suburban areas.

Reshaping Industrial Land Use

The circular economy transition and new opportunities for industries risk driving the demand for industrial land use as they may require different ways of thinking and organising industrial production and manufacturing. The growth of the technology industry will particularly boost this demand, especially in established industrial centres. Changing global cooperation patterns and investment flows pushing nearshoring may further fuel the demand for industrial land use.

At the same time, changing working patterns and the adoption of remote work may decrease the demand for office space, impacting industrial and office land use. Furthermore, policies like the European Green Deal and EU Biodiversity Strategy, aimed at preserving the environment, will have restrictive effects on industrial land use.

Overall, we may rather witness a reshaping of industrial land use with shifting focus but largely stable demands.

Expanding Agricultural Land Use

The European Green Deal and the push for organic and sustainable agriculture will lead to an increase in agricultural land use. This may also include increasing land use demands for greenhouse areas. However, the demand for more agricultural land may lead to some land use conflicts. The need for industrial and critical computing space and space for renewables may have restrictive effects on agricultural land unless innovative solutions are found.

One of the biggest land use challenges ahead might be the management of natural and agricultural land. The reviewed EU policies and trends are rather clear that the broader objectives require expansion of agricultural and natural areas. Seen from regional perspective, the further expansion of agricultural and natural land and the subsequent restrictive approach to urban sprawl and built environment will limit urban sprawl in order to avoid land conversion.

Expanding Natural Land Use

Natural land is set to expand not at least due to the European Green Deal and EU Biodiversity Strategy, which envision the expansion and restoration of natural areas. The EU Circular Economy Strategy and subsequent transition to a circular economy will also contribute to this expansion by reducing environmental pollution. Rather than expanding the share of natural land use it may help to boost the environmental conditions of natural land.

However, the growing need for industrial and critical computing space and space for renewables may have restrictive effects on natural land.

Conclusion

Various interconnected trends and policies, are reshaping the land use landscape across the EU. Understanding these shifts is crucial as we navigate a future where our use of land plays a central role in addressing the pressing challenges of our time.

Beyond these very general insights, the Dutch study on potential land use impact of EU policies and global trends on the Netherlands (Abre numa nova janela) offers also more detailed insights on specific land use impacts in the Netherlands and selected case study regions.

by Kai Böhme, Kirsti Hagemann, Paola Marinović and Maria Toptsidou