Gameweek 6 - Premier League - 25/26

Welcome to the Gameweek 6 Newsletter where we will look at this weeks Matchups. As its only Tuesday, I will include my predictions but as always they will be subject to change up until the deadline

But first lets do a GW5 Recap:

• Predictions: 5/10 (which brings us to 28 out of 50 to date)

• FPL Team: 48 Points. (Green arrow so cant complain.)

Now lets jump into the Gameweek 5 Matchup Analysis and we will also look at the xStats for the teams before and after we adjust for the fixtures:

1) AVL vs FUL

• AVL continue to dissappoint in attack and defense (even against 10 man Sunderland they conceded).

• FUL Defense has been solid as usual, attack looks to be on an upward trajectory - the last two games things seem to be clicking.

• I expect AVL’s confidence to be low after that result and FUL will want to take advantage of that.

• It could be a low scoring affair.

Prediction: FUL

2) BRE vs MNU

• MNU attack are Top of league for xG (pre and post FD Adjustment).

• MNU Defensive numbers don’t look great, largely driven by the performance at BRN (bad week overall) and the MCI game.

• BRE have been up and down with performances after their win against CHE they lost to FUL who normally don’t offer much in attack.

• However BRE do offer plenty of threat in attack and shouldn’t be underestimated.

• My feeling, MNU attack will finally click now with Cunha fit - both teams to score.

• BRE are a tricky team, they adjust tactics based on the opponent and MNU do not!

Prediction: MNU

3) CHE vs BRI

• Matchup Analysis again shows another tight game where the numbers have swung in BRI’s favour.

• BRI were on top against TOT but let them back into the game - they just seem to concede every game.

• BRI attack however is still looking good and these are non-pen numbers.

• CHE had a game to forget - they are a bit of a mixed bag at the moment especially with the results against BRE and MNU.

• CHE defense can be got at and I do expect BRI to score. CHE attack I think has so much potential, but like I mentioned Maresca’s decision making always confuses me.

• If Palmer does not start this game I think the game becomes very even like the matchup suggests. If Palmer is fit, it could edge it for CHE, he scored 4 against them last year.

Prediction: CHE

4) CRY vs LIV

• The Unstoppable Force (LIV) meets the Immovable Object (CRY). LIV have won all their games this season and CRY are undefeated in the last 14 (or 15?) games.

• LIV seemed to struggle in the 2nd half against EVE who threw wave after wave of attack at them and also scoring 1 goal.

• The LIV attack is not living up to the hype (at least not yet) but they are still getting the job done against top tier defenses like ARS and NEW.

• Defensively they have been doing pretty well ranking 4th before and after FD Adjustment.

• CRY I feel will want to keep up their good run and are usually a bogey side for LIV.

• Defensively they are a very impressive unit - the defenders are even responsible for many of the attacking returns.

• In attack they have the outlet of Mateta who should give VVD some trouble. With Wharton back as well they will be able to withstand some of the pressure from the LIV midfield.

• However LIV are now 5 points ahead and will want to take advantage of that.

• By the smallest margins I think LIV do what champions do and pull out a win even if they have not been at their best recently.

Prediction: LIV

5) EVE vs WHU

• EVE had an impressive 2nd half against LIV, the front 4 just look to be oozing with confidence and chemistry at the moment with Grealish leading most of the attacks.

• WHU suffered another defeat to CRY this week, down to frailties from set pieces yet again.

• WHM are confusing because they have the players and they have shown moments where their quality comes through, but they just keep conceding goals.

• With EVE playing at home, and the back line starting to coming back together (i.e. Mykolenko) I think on both fronts EVE look a little more sure of themselves at the moment and will want to capitalize on a WHU side which cant seem to make it work.

Prediction: EVE

6) LEE vs BOU

• Despite last week’s matchup analysis favouring LEE, I went for WOL for the reasons I mentioned. On the surface this looked like a bad decision with LEE winning 3-1, but LEE were very lucky to win, WOL were the better team.

• LEE are stronger in Defense than they are in attack, but BOU are stronger again in DEF ranking in the top 3 post FD Adjustment.

• BOU do struggle against a low block (evidenced in the draw with NEW), but NEW are a far sturdier team than LEE.

• I still think that BOU will win this game, but my expectations have definitely been tampered. Despite the gap in quality, I think this will be a low scoring game.

Prediction: BOU

7) MCI vs BRN

• A triple captain game for anyone who is interested.

• BRN rank bottom for defense both before and after FD Adjustment.

• MCI rank 2nd in Attack - and most of this is directly funneled through Haaland who even scored against ARS.

• MCI attack seem to finally be clicking with Reijnders, Doku and Foden acting as the perfect support system for Haaland.

• MCI defense is also looking much healthier with the return of Gvardiol and Donnarumma in goal.

Prediction: MCI

8) NEW vs ARS

• This one is very tricky. Top 2 defenses facing off against each other.

• I don’t think NEW are looking to good in attack - so not the best time to face ARS of all teams.

• This leads me to think this will be a one way game in which ARS have most of the possession and look to try and unlock the NEW deep block.

• With the new look attack ARS have, they should be able to find a goal in this game - this could also be achieved through a set piece, so they have plenty of ways to score.

• ARS could have done better against MCI this week if they had started Eze - assuming this will be the case against NEW and also with the return of Saka, I think all of the threat those two bring combined with the impact this will have on Gyokeres, will result in ARS getting past NEW. But again could be another low scoring affair.

Prediction: ARS

9) NFO vs SUN

• NFO under Ange have already conceded 3 to ARS, 3 to Swansea and now to BRN as well. We need to keep in mind that he has just arrived and the team will need some time to adapt to his tactics.

• NFO will look to be an attacking team, but at the moment it seems like Ange will be chopping and changing which means Wood might get some reduced minutes.

• SUN on the other have shown a lot of fight in the first 5 games - getting a point against AVL when down to 10 men is going to a lot for their confidence going into this game.

• Isidor seems to be in form up top, SUN managed to get that point without Adingra either who was suspended.

• Based on how well SUN are playing I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this one, but because of NFO’s home advantage and also the quality of players they have I will opt for Draw but its very hard to call and will probably change my mind again before the deadline.

Prediction: Draw

10) TOT vs WOL

• TOT have been in good form recently coming off the back of a champions league win and also a comeback to draw 2-2 with BRI.

• The attack has looked a little blunt but I have faith that Frank will find the right setup to get the most out of them, for instance neither Johnson or Simons started this game choosing Odebert to start on the LHS.

• TOT defense has also been lucky to keep some clean sheets, but I still rate the back 4 as competent and enough to keep WOL out this game.

• WOL should have won their game against LEE but the fact they only managed to score one shows where they are lacking. Even if JSL returns for this game, he cant do it all by himself.

• WOL defense has been the real let down, conceding 3 against LEE albeit they should not have conceded more than 1.

• Whilst WOL attack and TOT defense have pretty even rankings, the game will be decided by the quality gap in TOT attack and WOL defense.

Prediction: TOT

Gameweek 6 Summary

GW 1-5 xG (Non-Pen):

xG (Non-Pen) Adjusted:

GW 1-5 xGC (Non-Pen):

xGC (Non-Pen) Adj:

GW 1-5 xPTS:

GW 1-5 xPts Adj:

GW 1-5 Rank Movements:

Takeaways:

• BOU + ARS are in the top tier for performances in the lats 5 weeks.

• NEW Defense are in their own tier, followed by ARS and BOU just below them.

• BRN Defense sit bottom, but are now joined by WHM and AVL in the bottom tier defenses so far.

• MNU attack are well ahead and the only attack in the top tier.

• BRI attack sit 3rd - could cause CHE some problems this week.

Gameweek 5 - 48 Points:

It would have been a great week to bench boost, with all four players delivering returns of some king despite no clean sheets or goals. I am happy with 48 points considering the below:

• Haaland 9 Pointer.

• BOU Clean Sheet (don’t own Senesi).

• Watkins Blank.

• Cucurella + Wirtz getting zero each bringing me down to 9 men.

To still get a green arrow from that, I’m happy with it! I feel like the team is setup well for the coming week with 2 FT to bring in Haaland for Watkins. As for the second free transfer, I think I am going to go with what the data is telling me and get a slice of the MNU attack because the next two games could be where they realise their potential. Mbuemo being my preference, he just looks good in attack!

That’s all for this week everyone, I hope you found the above helpful!

Thanks for reading!

The Tortoise