🇪🇺 How Europe can force Putin to stop

2026/02/25

We entered the fifth year of a large-scale war in Europe. By now it became evident that Putin has no intention to stop. He is willing to fight for years to come, no matter how many losses his country suffers and economic potential it loses. As Ukrainian drones now inflict more casualties a month than the number of people who sign a contract to join the military, there are even signs that he is preparing the ground for a new mobilization wave.

As things stand right now, if we continue on our course, it is very likely that one year from now we will enter the sixth year. Putin successfully played Trump by acting like he’s negotiating and wants peace, while continues to terrorize Ukrainians.

The problems

Europe currently has no coherent strategy for stopping Putin or theory of victory. After four years, at best, we finally developed a model for not losing.

Even now, we remain reactive. Putin does something, Europe reacts. Putin does not do it, we breathe a sigh of relief, and get cosy for another day. We just cannot let go of our eight decades old reflex that the US will eventually lead the charge and figure something out. 

Even more dangerously, we got comfortable with the status quo that Ukraine will hold the Russians indefinitely. There is no sense of urgency any more, we don’t plan beyond this year. We think it’s enough to pass a few sanctions and support packages occasionally — always delayed and watered-down by Hungary — while trying to crawl and submit our way to staying on the right side of Trump.

The man who despises us and wants us divided. His goals align with Putin on that, and his political aspiration is to be more like him and not like any leader in Europe. He looks up to him, and he’s willing to push their partnership as far as he can, while undermining Ukraine, NATO, and the EU ever step of the way.

Europe is refusing to truly face reality that it cannot rely on the US any more. We delude ourselves into believing that maybe things will turn around if we just wait. Perhaps things are not that bad. They would not go that far for Putin… I mean, it just doesn’t make sense, right? Why would they sacrifice the relationship with more than half a billion of the most prosperous people on Earth for a glorified gas station… Perhaps the midterms… OK, then at least the next president… And so on, and so on.

We have to get out of this self-delusion on our own before history forces us to do it with a catastrophe.

There are at least some signs that this already started happening. Since Putin is still unwilling to give up his maximalist war aims, the EU finally presented him with its maximalist aims for peace talks. This includes the reduction of the Russian military, the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Armenia, and Georgia, and war reparations. Luckily, Kaja Kallas understands how to negotiate with Russia.

The initial direction is welcome, but not enough. We have to develop a strategy. One cannot win with being reactive all the time, and too frightened to take the initiative. We cannot win a war while playing only defence. 

What does Europe have left as leverage towards Russia? We already sanctioned them and broke almost all ties. We can do little further on that front apart from updating previous sanctions and calling them the “nth package”. If anything, forces in the world seem to start pushing us into the other direction. With the help of Trump’s relentless efforts, Russia is climbing out of isolation.

Next month, even it’s Paralympics team will compete under a Russian flag again. Something that was forbidden not even because of it’s war of aggression, but because of their prior systematic doping scandals. And now all of that is forgiven and forgotten. Do we really think that after this, Trump will not try to push for full Russian participation in his LA Olympics, possibly even with the personal invitation of Vladimir Putin? Would that be enough for Europe to wake up? Probably not, I mean that will be 2028, at that point we can surely survive until the next US election.

This has to stop. How many more people have to die in Ukraine just because we cannot get our act together and take any initiative? How many freezing winters will Ukrainians have to endure without electricity and heating, while we’re patting them on the back online for their resilience among our cosy cushions?

The primary message we push must be a demand for unconditional ceasefire. While the strategy should definitely look further than that, this simple and coherent concept must be communicated to Putin, to European publics, and to the US.

The 90 billion support package (the “Steel Porcupine loan”) the EU agreed on for 2026 and 2027 is good. It signals that we are willing to continually support Ukraine. But it also hints to Putin that maybe he only has to survive two more years, then there is a chance he will have outlasted Europe. What then? Are we going to pass another package, so he can conclude again that he only needs to survive just two more years?

He doesn’t even need far-right pro-Russian forces to get elected in Europe to continue the war. Even the potential of them taking power and the hope that they will derail any further support is enough for him to not back down.

We must resolve these problems, and I believe we can. It takes four steps we must develop simultaneously.

Step one: ensure our support is unconditional and without end

The Steel Porcupine loan must be extended and expanded. 

This package should be automatically renewed year by year until there is no durable peace. If Putin is unwilling to negotiate in good faith, if bombs keep on falling, the money, and weapons keep on flowing too without an end date.

This has to be removed from constant negotiations, veto threats and political hesitation that he currently exploits. He must understand that he cannot outlast Europe, and even his allies getting to power in individual member states will not change EU policy.

Step two: the time has come to put a big stick in the EU’s hand

We have to start putting real pressure on Russia while simultaneously strengthening European capabilities. 

The SAFE fund finally broke the taboo of common EU borrowing, we can build on that. The EU must create a €100 billion fund which purchases weapons for itself. This is 25% of all aid Europe has ever given or committed to Ukraine. This is politically feasible.

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In practice, this would serve as an army without soldiers. It would have the benefit of being deployable without the disadvantage of escalation and the domestic backlash of sending any actual European soldiers to face the Russian army.

The only thing that will stop Putin is his fear. Fear of a military defeat and fear of losing power. A force of this magnitude could create the conditions for a Ukrainian victory and put real pressure on him to reconsider his maximalist aims.

The fund would also provide much needed capital for the member states to buy new equipment. Much of the older Soviet-era or early NATO-standard gear in Eastern and Central Europe is sitting in depots. They are the heritage of the Cold War, and either borderline obsolete, or about to become that very soon. This might be the last war they could be of use.

A €100 billion fund could buy this at book value, providing those states with immediate cash to modernize, while it repurposes or refurbishes this gear. With the money, the states could buy modern military technology from Ukraine or spend it on their weapons manufacturing. This would simultaneously present strong incentive for the government of Germany, France, and even Italy — as the countries with the largest weapons industry — while strongly benefit smaller states.

This plan would ideally be focused primarily on buying weapons from Europe. The money should stay in the continent and benefit the British as well, as they are also in need of cash for military modernization. Their strength is an essential piece in European security.

Trump significantly weakened the credibility of NATO Article 5. Europe desperately needs to find reliable deterrents against further Russian aggression, this would be that. It would also give some boost to the sluggish European economy with new investments to expand weapons production, which is our current main bottleneck for sustaining Ukraine, and reaching strategic autonomy from the United States on defence. 

But most importantly, this would be the backdoor basis for a European Army. An idea that has strong popular support in Europe, with even most prominent leading politicians being on board. Since it would contribute to European states reaching their “5%” defence spending target, it would quietly placate NATO and the US as well, the largest obstacles to this pressing ambition. The structure and the equipment for a common defence force would be created, ready to be rapidly manned if the circumstances require it. 

With a €100 billion weapon pile in the EU’s hand, and the mechanism to use it without any one member vetoing it, we could finally start speaking to Putin from a place of strength. We can tell him: if you don’t stop, this will start to flow to Ukraine. We have to make him realize that he has no way of advancing any further on the battlefield, any illusion of victory must be erased from his mind. 

Will this be enough? Probably not! We need to simultaneously move forward with,

Step three: rapprochement with the Americans

We need to start lobbying in Washington and connect with the people of the United States. 

What are we even doing there right now?

When Israel tries to get another military aid package, are they sitting on their hands waiting and hoping that the US will not strike a deal with Iran over their head? No! They actively work to represent their interests, to mobilize support from leaders of both parties and individual representatives, they lobby at weapons manufacturers, use their leverage over evangelic Christian voters and American Jews. They talk to the media and try to influence the public as best as they can. A tiny country with merely 10 million residents uses all of its power to get what they need. 

In comparison, here we are. Half a billion people act like we have no leverage at all, as if we just have to accept what Trump and his hostile ideologues and incompetent “dealmakers” come up with over our heads. We act like the US equals Trump. If we had 10% the chutzpah they have, we would be in an entirely different position right now.

Rubio made a soft-core ethnonationalist speech at the Munich Security Conference that rubbed many the wrong way. He talked about how “American is and will always be the child of Europe.” We don’t have to like it, but we can use it. Let’s go, and tell MAGA that we are a family, related by blood!

Let’s show them how white we are. Send them our whitest blondest men and women to speak for us! Show them the white faces of the Ukrainian children stolen by Putin! The blond, blue-eyed kids whose families are murdered by Russia!

They, however, only represent a small faction of the United States. Others will be much easier to reach. Remind conservatives that we are their most important and reliable historical allies! Tell the Christians that we are the birthplace of Christianity! The democrats that we are closer to them than anyone in the world! The socialists that we can be their role models! Remind them all of our common past and that they would not exist without us.

Zelenskyy is the most liked politician in the US. The voters hate Putin and do not trust Russia. What Trump is doing right now is not at all popular with them. The majority wants to continue support for Ukraine, and rejects Ukraine giving up territories. (Opens in a new window)

The American elite overwhelmingly supports Ukraine. Actors, journalists, industry leaders, celebrities. Why are we acting like this all doesn’t matter? Why do we behave like we just have to watch and take anything Trump does with Putin? This is unreasonable learned helplessness.

Send Giorgia on Fox News, make them air a King Charles speech, Farage and Boris on Joe Rogan, Zelenskyy, Macron, Merz, Starmer on CNN and MSNBC. Ask the pope to go and talk to the Catholics and every Christian of the US about the importance of working towards peace. Europe has well-known politicians in every corner of the political spectrum who supports Ukraine and wants this war to end, who could address every segment of the American electorate.

Lobby with the military, show them all the innovation Ukraine has developed. It can sell them the best drones. It can teach them how to fight the wars of the future.

Step four: putting pressure on Trump

Once we established a narrative in their information environment, and signalled our readiness to increase military support to force a ceasefire, we can direct all of this at Trump, his team, and the political elite. 

If we show the willingness to put a €100 billion military force on the table, we can go and tell him: you tried talking to Putin, you tried pressuring Ukraine for more than a year. We appreciate your effort, but it is time to change tactics. Threaten him with matching that €100 billion. Start pressuring him like Biden or Obama never could. You can finally put an end to this, set your legacy in stone as the President who achieved peace, and even earn his respect.

We can package him a nice political prize, wrap it in gold, and present it on live TV. There’s probably not even a need to send all those weapons, just to signal that he is willing to do it.

Leaders of Europe!

This is not about arming Ukraine. This is not about war. This is about stopping Putin and forcing peace through strength. Everyone supports peace. Nobody wants to be on the side that doesn’t support peace. How could you let the Putinist right, Russia, and Trump appropriate this word?

Call this initiative Peace 2027. Wear is as a badge! Repeat it until you become politically synonymous with it! Take back the narrative from your local populists! Everything we do is to finally secure peace. Everywhere we lobby for, we speak, we argue, we ask, it’s all for peace.

Foreign political interference in national politics has become the norm by today, as it is easier than ever. Israel, Russia, China are all interfering with American domestic politics, Russia constantly does it in Europe, and Trump is more willing to openly do it than any previous US president. By now this has become an ongoing routine. We either play the game, or we get played by others.

It’s time to stop acting like we don't have the cards. We created the deck and invented the game. For hundreds of years, we battled against each other for the highest pots. We forged ourselves to become the most competitive players on the planet. And with all that background, we are currently playing solitaire while watching the World Series of Poker from a distance.