Looking for a positive future perspective (part 2)

May 2024

Talking about the need to offer desirable future prospects for all people and places in Europe, the new trends report published by the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) in April makes dire reading. ‘Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe's Future (Opens in a new window)’ is the result of a collaborative effort involving nine EU institutions, reflecting a broad consensus on the strategic foresight needed to navigate the complexities of the future.

The ESPAS report provides insights into the global trends that will shape the Europe’s strategic environment over the next two decades. It explores the evolving geopolitical landscape, the implications of demographic shifts, and the urgency of environmental issues, among others. By examining these trends, the report wants to equip policy makers with the foresight necessary to make informed decisions that will steer Europe towards a stable, prosperous, and sustainable future. The report also makes one wonder as to what degree the trends and strategic choices discussed affect European cohesion as they mean different things to different places.

In two blog posts, we look at the trends and the strategic choices that could define Europe's trajectory towards 2040, highlighted in the report. This first blog post (Opens in a new window) reflected on geopolitical realignment, economic shifts and technological innovations and digital transformation.

This blog post will address issues such as environmental urgencies, demographic changes healthcare and social wellbeing and concludes with some reflections on territorial implications.

Demographic Changes

Demographic change will shape Europe’s future. By 2040, the EU’s population is expected to decline from its peak in 2026 at 453 million to around 450 million. Due to an aging society, working age population is expected to decline even faster. By 2040, the EU will have 17 million fewer people of working age than in 2023.

This shift is set to have profound implications on the labour market, social security systems, and fiscal sustainability. The EU must develop adaptive strategies to manage these demographic changes effectively. This includes promoting policies that encourage higher birth rates and integrating a potentially larger migrant workforce to counterbalance the aging demographic. Furthermore, the changing demographics necessitate innovations in healthcare and pension systems to ensure they remain sustainable and effective for a more elderly population. Policy makers are urged to consider comprehensive approaches that address these demographic shifts, ensuring that Europe can maintain its workforce vitality and support an aging population without compromising economic growth or social welfare.

As the EU navigates the complexities of demographic shifts and economic transitions, strengthening social protections will be essential. The report advocates for robust social policies that ensure equitable access to healthcare, education, and economic opportunities, thereby preventing social fragmentation and promoting inclusive growth.

In territorial terms the imbalances of demographic prospects in terms of aging and decline, have been discussed in an earlier blog post (Opens in a new window). The ESPAS reports makes clear that the EU needs to develop a strategy of how to deal with demographic change and the territorial imbalances it risks to produce.

Healthcare and societal wellbeing

In the wake of the global health crises, the ESPAS report underscores the necessity for the EU to enhance its healthcare systems and societal wellbeing frameworks. The report advocates for a strategic overhaul that ensures health resilience, accessibility, and innovation across the continent. This includes strengthening health infrastructure, expanding digital health services, and fostering research and development in medical technologies. The EU’s health policy must prioritise equitable access to healthcare, addressing disparities that could widen in the face of demographic changes and technological advancements. Moreover, the mental health and overall well-being of citizens have become paramount, necessitating policies that integrate health care with social services to provide comprehensive support systems. The strategic choices made in health and societal wellbeing will not only determine EU's capacity to handle future health emergencies but also its commitment to ensuring a high quality of life for all its citizens.

Quality of life and social well-being come with distinct spatial patterns has been shown by various OECD, Eurostat and ESPON studies. Even the understanding of quality of life varies geographically as has been discussed in an earlier blog post (Opens in a new window).

Territorial cohesion and regional development

The ESPAS report brings to light the substantial diversity in economic performance, environmental challenges, and social conditions across various European regions. The trends and strategic choices discussed in the ESPAS report are heavly inter-connected. Actions to address a particular trend will inevitably have consequences elsewhere. Furthermore actions will also need to take account of the terrritorial dimension of both the trends and the policitical choices. They are very likely to have diverse and varied territorial impacts.

This diversity, if not addressed, could lead to increased disparities and hinder overall European integration and growth. Just think of the examples about the territorial dimension of strategic autonomy, re-industrialisation, green and digital transition, demographic change etc. mentioned above.

This implies also that related foresight approaches and policy responses need to become more spatially nuanced to fully understand the territorial diverse impacts and transition potential. Enlarging the current foresight report with a territorial foresight dimension would be a first step in the analysis (see e.g. experience from a previous ESPON project (Opens in a new window). For a policy triplet, the Territorial Agenda 2030 ‘A future for all places’ (Opens in a new window) offers a good starting point. Taking this as complementary reading to the ESPAS report allows to fill various of the territorial and cohesion related gaps, both as regards the challenges and the policy proposals.

In terms of the strategic choices ahead, the EU needs place-based initiatives that leverage local assets and address particular vulnerabilities. Furthermore, multi-level governance and policy coordination across sectors and administrative levesl are pivotal. It involves engaging local, regional, and national authorities in a collaborative framework that ensures policies are effectively aligned and mutually reinforcing. This collaborative approach should also extend to all relevant policy seectors, to the private sector and civil society to foster a comprehensive ecosystem that supports regional development.

Emphasising collaboration among EU institutions and member states, the report underlines the importance of a united approach in navigating the complex landscape of global affairs. As Europe moves forward, the principles of solidarity, sustainability, and strategic autonomy will be key to overcoming the challenges of today and seizing the opportunities of tomorrow

Europe's future will depend on its ability to anticipate changes and adapt to them proactively while keeping an eye on the economic, social and territorial cohesion within the EU. Strategic foresight should not only involve preparing for inevitable changes but also creating desirable outcomes through deliberate and thoughtful choices. The time to act and take key decisions is now, before current challenges are turned into future crises. Although the outlook presented in the ESPAS report sees more challenges than opportunities, its policy making needs to translate this into a forward looking perspective which can offer desirable future prospects for all people and places in the EU.

by Kai Böhme