Gameweek 3 - Premier League - 25/26

Welcome to the Gameweek 3 Newsletter where we will look at Matchups, the Potential Value Pick(s) and predictions.

But first lets do a GW2 Recap:

• Predictions: 5/10 (which brings us to 12 out of 20 to date)

• Value Pick: CHE - Success(so we are at 1/2 for the season)

• FPL Team: 60 Points.

Now lets jump into the Gameweek 3 Matchup Analysis (also please note, I am writing this Tuesday so I might change my mind on some of them - I will post the final predictions on Social Media before the deadline):

1) AVL vs CRY

Before I ran the matchups, my initial thoughts about this game were that I can’t call it either way given the strengths of each team and how they have performed so far. I am usually quite bullish on CRY, but AVL are not pushovers despite their below par start to the season.

CRY (now without Eze) have faced good defenses back to back in CHE and NFO and generated 3 big chances combined for 1.76 xG. What I didn’t realise was you could say the same for AVL playing both NEW and a well drilled BRE defense that has only improved with the addition of Kelleher - AVL created 2 Big Chances with a combined xG 1.39 (pinch of salt with this as they played with 10 men against NEW after Konsa was sent off).

In defense, its hard to separate them. AVL with an xGC (Non-Pen) of 2.65 and CRY with and xGC (Non-Pen) of 2.53. Outside of the stats, lets look at whats been happening on the field - AVL have lined up with very defensive attacking players in both games, with only Watkins and Rogers as attacking outlets (i.e. no legs). This has really hampered the attack, Emery will need to try something new - with Malen at his disposal maybe he’ll finally bring him into the starting 11 because he will need all the fire power he can get vs a Stubborn CRY defense. It was a surprise to see AVL lose to BRE without scoring anything, so the timing of this game for AVL given the issues with goal output is not ideal.

CRY have now lost their main creator in EZE, Guehi could be on the way soon as well but I still think the defense will shine. That said, against NFO this week CRY looked the weaker team as NFO were the ones creating all the chances in the 2nd half and even hitting the post - and NFO would not be ranked as one of the stronger attacking teams (but its too early to say). This could be down to CRY having played Thursday and them getting tired in the final 30 mins of the game - they play away in Europe this Friday so need to consider that also for this game.

It feels like we’re comparing like for like on all fronts - xG, xGC, the first two fixtures (albeit BRE slightly easier fixture than NFO maybe), Watkins & Rogers vs Mateta & Sarr. There is also the return of Konsa and Martinez to steady the AVL defense. AVL with the home advantage. For me this one is a bit close, maybe I am just being lazy by sitting on the fence but CRY like a draw with 2 of them already this season.

Prediction: Draw

2) BRI vs MCI

BRI have now faced two defenses that ranked very highly last season in FUL and EVE and it doesn’t get any easier facing MCI. BRI’s attack has now lost Rutter to injury and overall just seems to be lacking that killer instinct up front - to me it seems disjointed, I honestly couldn’t predict who starts in the front 4 every week.

MCI and Pep had a humbling experience this week as Thomas Frank got the better of them again. MCI put out a MCI 2.0 lineup (Marmoush, Bobb, Cherki, Reijnders, Nico, Trafford) and they didn’t deliver. However, this shouldn’t take away from the fact that this new TOT under spurs look like a different team.

MCI seem to be susceptible to high pressing, something TOT exposed using there defensive MF of Bentancur, Sarr and Pahlihna. I’m asking myself if BRI have the tools to do the same, and despite the presence of Baleba I think they will struggle. MCI also have Rodri coming back into the team as well which should steady the ship.

BRI have conceded 3 goals to FUL and EVE in the first two games (two teams not the most efficient in attack) and they have been awarded two penalties and only scored one. MCI meanwhile put 4 past WOL comfortably and were deserving of a draw against TOT if you look at the xG in that game - TOT scored the 2nd goal as a result of a massive Trafford error, had that not been conceded perhaps MCI would have found a way back.

My thinking here is that at the Etihad, with one loss already, MCI will need to put in a performance if they want to shake off the defeat to TOT. They are suited to games againts teams like BRI who usually dont sit deep. BRI have already conceded goals to lesser attacks, I cant see how they would keep MCI out. They also have yet to score from open play - it seems like too many things favouring MCI for this matchup.

Prediction: MCI

3) CHE vs FUL

I usually find it hard to call games that involve FUL as they are capable of keeping clean sheets against tougher opponents. That said, CHE look to be up and running and surely have gained some confidence after the 5-1 beating of WHM (without Palmer).

FUL have managed to pull 2 draws out of the bag for the first two gameweeks against a BRI defense which I already mentioned I dont have great confidence in and a MNU team which I thought were going to win the game comfortably (I was very wrong). FUL actually generated more xG than MNU in that match but a draw was the fair result. FUL goal could be chalked down to MNU’s bad defending but Smith Rowe still did the work to put it away after coming off the bench.

CHE look a little more solid after the last result but are still not the whole package yet - yes they beat WHM pretty well but WHM and CHE had the same number of shots that game, I’m wondering if this result is more down to WHM being very poor rather than CHE being very good. That’s just a word of caution - I still think CHE have the fire power to score against any team, they just need consistency. The defense however seems to be doing ok in the absense of Colwill - WHM did score first in the game and had another goal chalked off by VAR though.

CHE’s defense with a midfield of Caicedo and Enzo, I think is enough to keep FUL out of the goals this week because I also believe the FUL attack is not very potent - Iwobi would be the main player I worry about from that FUL team because he can create chances. This game is usually a close affair; CHE did the double over FUL in the 23/24 (1-0, 0-2) and they got 1 each in the 24/25 season (2-1, 1-2).

FUL have the 3rd lowest xGC (Non-Pen) across the first 2 games (1.53) while CHE have the 2nd lowest (1.38). There may not be many goals in this game, if Palmer is back and plays on the RHS like he was planned to before getting injured I think the CHE attack and can get one against FUL and should have enough defensively to keep FUL out.

Prediction: CHE

4) LEE vs NEW

NEW put up a serious fight against LIV given all that has been on going on around the club, and were by far the better team despite the result and them going down to 10 men after Gordon was sent off. It was impressive - not only that, LIV only generated an xG of 0.69 despite scoring 3 goals. Across two games (with one against the best attack in the league) NEW have the best xGC (Non-Pen) in the league - at 0.9! The main lesson I’m taking from this is that with that back 5 and the midfield three which I was praising last week for their physicality and energy, dont seem to be shipping many chances to the opposition teams.

This doesn’t bode well for LEE. While they had an impressive first outing against EVE, that result was settled by a late penalty and they were at home for the first game of the new season. Against ARS, it was a very different story. LEE only managed 3 shots for a combined xG of 0.16 showing they struggled against the best defensive team in the league. Now assuming the NEW defense can continue the way it has done, its possible that LEE (despite being at home) way not be able to break them down. Remember they scored from a pen against EVE as well and not from open play.

Meanwhile, NEW have now lost their makeshift CF in Gordon to a 3 match ban, so I dont know who will be chosen as the starting striker (probably Osula). You never know, maybe this is the perfect game to reintegrate Isak if he changed his mind and wanted to play. For now I’m going to be cautious and say Osula or Jacob Murphy will come into the front 3 but I cant predict who plays where. But even worse, in the LIV game they have lost Tonali, Joelinton (2 of the 3 midfielders) and Schar (key CB) to injury in that game with all of them likely to miss out this weekend.

Given how front footed NEW were against LIV and the fact they will be desparate to get some points on the board from a newly promoted side, I think NEW could still have enough quality to beat LEE despite losing 4 key members of starting 11.

Prediction: NEW

5) LIV vs ARS

LIV attack still as efficient as every, but have been overperforming - they now have 7 goals from 3 xG. Only 0.69 xG against Newcastle despite scoring 3 goals and them being down to 10 men. ARS defense won’t let this happen in my opinion.

ARS so far have managed to keep out a MNU side who looked determined to put them away in the first game at old trafford. Then at the Emirates, the limited LEE to an xG of 0.16 for the whole game. The ARS defense have also largely been involved in goal contributions with 4 goals out of 6 coming from the Fullbacks.

LIV now have Conor Bradley back in for RB which should make the defense a little better. ARS are going to be without Saka for this game which is a big blow, Odegaard also came off injured but could still be in contention. The injury to Saka could mean that Eze comes straight into the side and play on the left wing with Madueke moving out to the right to replace Saka. Whilst I have faith in the ARS defense the attack will need to learn to play together all essentially new players (unless Trossard or Martinelli start on the left) but in either case its still not ideal for them.

This game is already high stakes this early on as both teams are going to be competing for the title and both have started the season with 6 points. LIV have been overachieving in attack and I expect ARS to correct this to some extent. ARS have been so efficient at set pieces, that it could be where they target LIV given the forward line is unsettled to an extent.

It’s early on the week and we are just off the back of that LIV result - my gut is telling me that if NEW could put in such a performance against LIV then why can’t ARS? My gut is telling me ARS but it is the champions LIV at the end of the day so it’s incredibly hard to predict so far.

Predecition: Draw

6) MNU vs BRN

Given MNU’s troubles in front of goal, I wouldn’t be surprised if a defensive outfit like BRN managed to keep them at bay (yes I am bitter MNU fan). One bright spark in the team though is Cuhna, he could have had 3 goals in the first 20 minutes against FUL, hitting the post with one of those chances. But - as always, MNU did not maintain consistency and it was FUL that had the better chances from there out.

MNU do look to be getting better at set pieces on the bright side with the OG coming from a Leny Yoro effort on a corner. Amorim wont be happy with how the season has started, but he is partly to blame for the substitutions which did not add anything to the game and some could say led to MNU conceding the goal.

BRN showed us the kind of team they were in championship - defense first and made a point by beating SUN a team that were a level below them last year. Whilst I think BRN don’t have much in attack, Anthony looks to be the key piece getting inovlved in everything. Josh Cullen also had a good performance as captain. But pinch of salt as they were playing another promoted side and it was at Turf Moor.

MNU need to respond this week with a result and I think BRN will make it hard for them with the deep block. This is why Cuhna and Mbuemo were signed though - moments of brilliance that can win a game. If MNU can put in a performance like they did against ARS at Old Trafford and the first 20 mins of the FUL game, then they should beat BRN comfortably - but if the inconsistency crops up again, it might be a cagey 1-0 game or even a goalless draw.

Prediction: MNU

7) NFO vs WHM

This is a gameweek where I imagine FPL managers are going to transfer in Chris Wood and they might be right. WHM defensively look pretty bad, something I didnt anticipate at the start of the season. The new GK Hermansen has already made a lot of errors and there has only been 2 games.

NFO on the other hand, seem to be getting better in attack - they were excellent in the first game and were the stronger team away to CRY who also boast a strong defense. Whilst the matchup details above say this could be a close game, I think NFO have the better setup and better assets to do damage (plus they’re playing at home).

Trying not to overthink this one but to play devil’s advocate, is there a world in which WHM just come out fighting after the first two games - kind of like how NEW have come out after the Summer they had. Whilst its possible, I dont know if WHM have the legs to do it, their MF is easily there weakest point (other than the GK) and the forward line might not have enough againts this NFO defense which are ranked 7th for xGC (Non--Pen) so far after 2 games. Meanwhile WHM ranked 19th, but we should note that its an xGC (Non-Pen) of 3.5 despite letting in 8 goals so far.

NFO are also 6th of xG (Non-Pen) and with the form they are in and preparing for European football, the will convince themselves that WHM is a game that need to capitalise given the Hammers current form. We need to keep on eye on NFO’s manager situation as there is currently trouble in paradise between him and the owner - if he is suddenly replaces it could upset the NFO team. That aside, I think they should be able to beat WHM.

Prediction: WHM

8) SUN vs BRE

BRE could end up being a surprise this season with the new attacking players they have added to the team and also the experience of Jordan Henderson. They looked revitalised playing again AVL - Thiago, Schade and Outtara with Damsgaard pulling the strings could be a tricky front 4 that unlocks a few defensive teams.

SUN looked very attacking in the opening 15 minutes against BUR and managed too very big chances but failed to put them away. After that BRN grew into the game were able to capitalise - whilst SUN did generate slightly more xG in the game it makes me wonder how solid there defense is.

BRE’s defense may not be a top half defense but they are as they were from last season with the addition of new keeper Kelleher. For me, a backline normally performs better the longer they have remained unchanged. I think while the BRE defense are not the strongest, they can manage a team like newly promoted SUN especially in systematic way BRE setup for different teams.

Is the SUN attack as strong as we thought? It’s still too early to say. They overperfomed against a WHM team with their own problems and were kept out by fellow promoted team BRN. Even if the BRE defense cant keep them out, I think they BRE attack could do some damage to this SUN defense if they setup right and find their rhythm. Also need to mention that SUN have lost one of their best players in Dan Ballard to injury, so his presence in the back line will be missed.

BRE are probably conscious of the fact they are being written off this season due to the loss of personel and that there may be some truth in that if they’re no careful. Assuming they take that risk seriously, they will want to pick up as many points as possible against sides that may also be battling it out at the bottom of the table come end of the season.

Prediction: BRE

9) TOT vs BOU

TOT have shown signs that they are looking forward to a good season under Frank. A complete turnaround from when Ange was in charge, defensive setup and clean sheets have now become a prime focus (something Frank mentions in his interviews a lot). Not only that they have solid MF trio now which look like the NEW MF, and attacking wise they have options - including Richarlison’s flare, Kudus’ creativity and the ever present Johnson always arriving at the back post. Its crazy to think that Solanke is left out of this team but at the moment Richarlison is performing very well.

BOU looked good against both LIV and against WOL, but they were playing againts 10 men for part of the WOL game. Semenyo is an ever present threat always showing his quality when he shoots. Defensively BOU are not as bad as feared but we only have two games to go off - one against the best attack in the league and the other against one of worst.

The TOT display against MCI is enough for me to think that TOT will have too much in midfield and defense for BOU. The attack also looks quite strong assuming you can get Sarr to advance the ball behind the three forwards. This game may not be as straighforward as the recent results might lead you to believe, but we need to go with the information we have so far - new BOU backline unsettled, TOT sturdiness in defense and midfield, top tactician in Thomas Frank.

Prediction: TOT

10) WOL vs EVE

This might be the most goal shy fixture to call this weekend, but EVE attack now look to be up and running after that win over BRI. EVE looked good going forward in that game with Grealish adding the needed width and Ndiaye looking comfortable and threatening on the right. The defense also kept the opposition out, albeit this was all down to Pickford - saved a penalty and cleaned up a mess when Tarkowski nearly gifted BRI a goal.

WOL haven’t shown much yet, JSL looks good as the spearhead of the attack but WOL still look to be lacking at both ends of the pitch. In addition to this, they will now be missing their CB Totti who was sent off in the BOU game. While WOL have had back to back tough games, they could fancy there chances against an EVE side whose defense looks slightly shakey at the moment - they have conceded 2 penalties in 2 games.

I think this game will be close but im inclined to go with the team that seems to be on the up at the moment and that’s EVE. I think the arrivals of Grealish, Barry and KDH are going to bolster the creativity of their attack - enough so that it could counteract the error prone makeshift back 4 that EVE currently have to play with. So I would not be surprised if JSL scores.

Prediction: EVE

The Value Pick(s):

BRE

It was hard to pick a Value Pick this week, a lot of value in the away teams but was weighing up which ones had the most value in my opinion. My initial Picks were NEW and BRE but the 4 absentees from NEW as mentioned above has made me slightly antsy, while I still expect them to win there are too many unknowns.

So the team for me this week is BRE. Below I will outline why:

BRE:

• Addition of Outtara in attack to compliment Thiago, both are good attackers.

• Damsgaard has resturned and looked pivotal for chance creation.

• Schade has also returned who proved at the end of last season what he can do in front of goal.

• The addition of Henderson’s experience in midfield is being underestimated.

• Solid back 5 that remains unchanged from last season (cohesive and understanding)

• Good GK in Kelleher.

• Two tough games in NFO (missing 4 players mentioned above + NFO look a different team since qualifying for Europe) and AVL (who they beat 1-0 at home) makes me think markets may be undervaluing them.

SUN:

• SUN got off to a good start against WHM at home this season, but scored 3 goals from an xG of less than 1 (overperformed).

• Reality hit by losing 2-0 to fellow promoted team BRN away.

• They had 9 shots against BRN (not bad) and 10 shots against WHM (4 of which came from Dan Ballard).

• Dan Ballard, key CB and set piece threat for SUN was injured against BRN and is likely to miss out this game.

• xG (Non-Pen) - 16th over the first 2 games despite the nice fixtures.

As a matchup it looks good from both an attacking and defensive perspective for BRE.

GW3 FPL Team:

This week is tricky given the likely Palmer absense from the FUL game. It’s still not clear if he will make the team or not but even if he does he may be on the bench. So I have a few routes below I’m considering:

• No Transfers - If Palmer misses out then Wirtz comes in. I have benched Wirtz this week as I see the LIV upside as limited against ARS and I think there is some upside to be gained from the defenders.

• Palmer → Cuhna - I think the BRN game could either be big upside for MNU or a cagey 1 or 2-0 game. So this one is a coin flip , I might even captain him if I bring him in because he looks MNU’s most threatening player. Only downside is the following fixtures are MCI and CHE so its a gamble if he doesn’t deliver this game.

• Palmer → Sarr - Sarr I think has a great 3 game run, and I am going to want him for GW3 and 4 anyway, so do I just make the move now and save a transfer by avoiding Cuhna? I am tempted, but this week may not be the week to move as AVL are not easy opponents and CRY play away in Europe on Thursday - against NFO, you could see that CRY got tired in the last 30 mins which could be the result of the Thursday game they played.

• Palmer → Johnson - This one is more of a gut feel - I always want Johnson in my team because he just gets the goals. He has two this season back to back already. He is playing for a TOT side that have goals in them. Fixtures for the next 4 look great from an attacking perspective (BOU, whm, bri, WOL). The only thing making me hesitant is that TOT could still make some transfers and I dont want to bring him in before deadline day in case TOT sign someone who can also play on the LHS.

• Captaincy - Salah is the placeholder because I am still undecided. Cuhna if he comes in is an option and Pedro (in Palmers absense) is also a good option because he should be on Pens. Salah is also just so reliable, so decision to be made closer to deadline.

Those are all my predictions and plans for Gameweek 3. If you have any feedback on the above feel free to give me shout on X, Instagram or Tiktok.

Best of Luck this week and I hope the above is helpful!

Thanks,

The Tortoise