Gameweek 4 - Premier League - 25/26

Welcome to the Gameweek 4 Newsletter where we will look at this weeks Matchups. As its only Tuesday, I will include my predictions but as always they will be subject to change up until the deadline

But first lets do a GW3 Recap:

• Predictions: 3/10 (which brings us to 15 out of 30 to date)

• Value Pick: BRE - Fail(so we are at 1/3 for the season)

• FPL Team: 37 Points. (Cuhna Captaincy Failed)

Now lets jump into the Gameweek 4 Matchup Analysis and we will also look at the xStats for the teams before and after we adjust for the fixtures:

1) ARS vs NFO

The matchup is showing the NFO as mid table for both attacking and defensive stats across the first 3 games, with a slight decline based on the difficulty of that run of fixtures (which included WHM). Nuno has now been sacked as well, so depending on who they sign as manager it might be best to avoid any further investment in their assets.

ARS attack was surprisingly sitting in 7th but this is inflated by the 5-0 win against LEE - the xG in the other two games against MNU and LIV was below 1 xG in each. That said ARS defense have been very solid - 2 clean sheets already and only barely conceded to LIV due to a wonder free kick.

This one could easily be a draw based on the lack of goal threat + defensive setup of each side. But based on team strength and the fact NFO lost their manager, I’ll back ARS to get the job done.

Prediction: ARS

2) BOU vs BRI

BOU have been on fire since the start of the season with a strong performance against LIV and a dominant victory over TOT. This despite the fact they have lost so many players in the summer. Their attack has moved up to 2nd when we account for the fixtures across the first 3 games. Defense has also been impressive with 2 clean sheets.

BRI have been a mixed bag recently, attacking wise they didn’t seem to be able to put it in the net and have also been awarded three penalties so far this season. Even so they were ranked 7th of Non Pen xG and now 5th after the MCI fixture. I personally think their defense is not that good but its been bolstered up to 8th here because of the MCI game so I am taking that with a pinch of salt.

Because BOU are at home and overall look to be on it, combined with the fact I’m not bullish on BRI defense, I will go BOU but would not be surprised to see a draw as the matchup analysis suggests.

Prediction: BOU

3) BRE vs CHE

After that SUN game, BRE look to be in a bit of trouble even though they had their chances to finish that game earlier with a missed penalty and an offside goal. Perhaps the atmosphere at SUN home ground had a part to play as well. All things considered, defensively they look to be ok, but they do drop from 5th to 11th when we look at the fixtures of SUN and NFO when they were missing 4 key players.

CHE seem to be ticking along nicely on all fronts. Top 3 attack and a top 6 defense, albeit they were lucky to keep clean sheets against CRY and FUL who both scored goals which were overruled by VAR. Palmer should be back this week which will make them stronger up front and Pedro looks to be settling in nicely as the No. 9. Defensively CHE are still decent.

My read of this game is BRE will mostly defend and CHE to have plenty of possession. BRE however do have the tools to make the most of a good counterattack.

Prediction: CHE

4) BRN vs LIV

BRN are rock bottom for NP xGC and are way out in front for worst defence when we adjust for the fixtures they had (see charts at the bottom of newsletter). LIV are sitting in 12th for attack after the first 3 games; 1 game against ARS and another against a determined NEW limited their goal threat even though they won both games from moments of brilliance.

There isn’t much to say here, I would be triple LIV attack if I knew who was going to play (Gakpo would be my choice to accompany Wirtz and Salah). The matchup analysis literally doubled in LIV’s favour which makes me think its possible this could be a goal fest for LIV. But its still early days - BRN at home might still prove to be something we should not underestimate.

Prediction: LIV

5: CRY vs SUN

SUN’s defensive numbers are 2nd - which doesnt make sense to me but that is what they are. However post fixture adjustments, they drop to 7th which is still respectable. They have had a kind opening three fixtures in WHM, BRN and BRE - two teams with issues and one newly promoted team.

CRY on the otherhand once again showing why they are CHE light. Attack stays in 8th and Defense slightly bumped from 11th to 9th - those are good ranking despite tough fixtures in CHE, NFO and AVL (with two European ties inbetween). I am more bullish on the CRY defense than attack, they seem to be good for Defcons. The attack has just lost Eze and now Sarr + Wharton to injury so I think they might struggle for goals.

Still, the quality in the team should be enough to keep a clean sheet and put at least one past SUN. The matchup analysis (pre fixtures) shows this could be a draw based on both teams attacking prospects, but I will go with the final adjusted prediction of CRY as a 23% swing is second biggest swing this week.

Prediction: CRY

6) EVE vs AVL

EVE’s defense has been poor given the nice run of fixtures they have a had (and this is not including the two penalties they conceded to LEE and BRI). They move to 19th in the table when we adjust for fixtures - which makes them a team to target. It makes sense given that they have been playing more attacking football with the new transfers and also the absense for Brainthwaite at CB is showing its effects.

AVL have been poor on both fronts, however there is some variance to blame here with the Red Card against NEW. But poor performances against BRE and CRY are harder to rationalise. Unai Emery will be aware that he needs to change things up in attack if we wants more goals and the international break may have provided him the time to address that.

I will be keeping Watkins for the next two games as currently EVE and BRN sit bottom two adjusted NP xG over the first 3. I would also hold onto Rogers if you have him.

Initially my gut said that AVL are due a good performance, and EVE might be overrated in general because of the vibe around the club which has papered over the cracks of a poor defense. If WOL could put two past them, then why cant AVL?

The attack still looks good though, and AVL are missing Onana and Kamara - their two CDMs. For those reasons I think, the matchup analysis showing a draw to be a likely outcome accounts for the above factors. As of now still undecided so will go with the draw.

Prediction: Draw

7) FUL vs LEE

This game is a tricky one to call. Both Attacks are nothing to write home about and both teams seem to be performing well defensively. On LEE defense they have been bumped from 9th to 4th but I think this is misleading - they played a NEW team which started with Murphy and Osula up top (no Joelinton either) and ARS (but admittedly the result did flatter ARS, it should have been more of 2-0 or 3-0 instead of 5-0).

FUL Defense makes more sense as that is more or less where they finshed last year for defensive stats. I think they are a step above LEE when its comes to attack - they have the players in Iwobi, Jimenez, Muniz, ESR, Josh King which gave CHE a run for there money. So part of me thinks FUL will get the job done at home to get their first win of the season against newly promoted LEE.

That matchup analysis is giving me a headache though - but I just remembered that LEE are now missing two key defensive players in their squad with Ampadu and Tanaka both out injured.

Prediction: FUL

8) MCI vs MNU

As a MNU fan, I was pleasantly suprised to see them not only top 3 in attack, but top 4 even after the fixture difficulty was accounted for (which included BRN). It shows that there is something cooking there with United it just needs to click. Defensively however the same problems as always - just a lack of doing the basics right, lack of a strong CM pairing which seems to get torn through and plenty of GK errors.

MCI are top for attacking stats after the first 3 games. Most of this is directed to Haaland. MCI also have their problems - attacking wise the new look attack just doesnt seem to be of the same quality as old MCI. Defensively they have always had problems although that may start to steady now with Rodri back and we will see how the addition of Donnarumma goes (sorry if I butchered the spelling).

Given this is a derby match, anything can happen. But I dont expect MNU to be trounced by MCI - based on the above this could see goals for both sides. However, with the amount of chances falling to Haaland and our issues in defense I think MCI might just edge it - but part of me still thinks this could be a draw.

Prediction: MCI

9) NEW vs WOL

The matchup analysis largely favours NEW here and suprisinly they come out on top for Defense both before and after the adjustments. This bodes well for them going into a game against a WOL side which rank bottom 3 in attack post adjustments. Now if only NEW had a No.9 to help them in attack who knows how they might have started the season. They unfortunately have been held to two 0-0 draws with AVL and LEE whilst they played with 10 men against LIV. For these reasons I think people are sleeping on NEW now that they have Wissa (big fan of him) and there new recruit from Germany as well.

WOL on the other hand are looking a little lost, JSL is out injured so they have limited options in attack. The defense isnt much better also ranking in the bottom three. I wish I had more to say about WOL but they are one of the teams I havent been keeping much of an eye on from a fantasy perspective.

I think NEW will start witha front 3 of Barnes, Elanga and Wissa as the final piece of the puzzle. If the defense can keep putting in these solid displays (even though I’m aware Joelinton is missing) I think they have enough to beat WOL.

Prediction: WOL

10) WHM vs TOT

The analysis seems to favour TOT, which is what I also had in mind when I first saw the fixture. Things have changed slightly - WHM had a pretty good win against NFO with Paqueta now staying and their new CM fitting in quite well and filling a gap they had, WHM might now stand a better chances after a terrible start. So the vibe around them could be improving.

The only thing to separate the two is the TOT attack - which did not look great against BOU. First shot of the game was in the 71st minute which I couldn’t believe. I’m hoping that was just a blip and more a masterclass from BOU and Iraola then an exposure of the problems at TOT. This is the same TOT team that played under Ange so attacking threat wouldn’t be the worst.

I expect TOT and Frank to get back in the goals this week because WHM defense just hasnt been great - and TOT defense is also decent keeping BOU to one goal despite their dominance in attack all game.

As a Richarlison owner my fingers are crossed.

Prediction: TOT

Summary:

xG (Non-Pen) for GW 1 to 3:

Adjusted for Fixture Difficulty:

xGC (Non-Pen) GW 1 to 3:

Adjusted for Fixture Difficulty:

xPTS GW 1 to 3:

Adjusted for Fixture Difficulty:

Rank Movements (after fixture difficulty):

Biggest takeaways:

• BOU look to be on it so far this season despite perceived setbacks.

• NEW defense looking robust.

• MNU 4th in Attack.

• EVE 19th for Defense.

• BRN far and away the worst defense so far.

• SUN the biggest fallers (8 places) xPTS wise.

That’s all for this week folks, I will instead share my team after the gameweek has ended - Tuesday is just too early to be giving my plans as many things can change between now and then.

Thanks for reading!

The Tortoise