Trend molecules for the city of tomorrow

August 2022

What trends shape our cities of tomorrow, looking beyond the global crises? The German initiative Stadt von übermorgen has collected a range of trends and topics that may shape the cities of tomorrow. To see beyond individual trends, they employed the concept of trend molecules.

Trend molecules

Looking at individual trends and their possible impacts on urban development often becomes very detailed and therefore of less relevance for understanding the overall development paths. Dealing with a large number of trends often reaches a level of complexity which is hard to handle. Trend molecules bundle individual trends into relevant causal-relationships and thereby provide an overview of complex trend landscapes. At the same time they acknowledge that individual trends exist as atomic parts, but form a sort molecule though their interaction, whether as attracting or each other repulsive atoms. The concept of trend molecules is closely linked to the system pictures often used in trend research, albeit easier to read.

The study identified 15 trend molecules. The below are just short teasers of each of the often rather complex molecules:

Human-machine-life

• Robots and machines support people in their activities and become more and more integrated into our lives, economic and social systems. In addition, human bodies are repaired and optimised through spare parts and extensions. 

• Individual trends concern among others smart clothing, artificial intelligence, cyborg or telemedicine.

Longer, healthier and more active lives

• A high standard of living with appropriate (health) care and health awareness contribute to increasing life expectancy. The way of life of the elderly changes accordingly. 

• Individual trends concern among others life-long-learning, demographic change, city of the elderly, poverty among elderly or city as stress factor.

Variety of production and distribution processes

• Besides globally organised mass production and the production of highly complex products, ‘single piece production’ and a direct distribution channel between producer and consumer are becoming more and more common. At the same time, sharing and lending become an integral part of the economic system. 

• Individual trends concern among others 3D-printing, diss-manufacturing, automated commerce, additive manufacturing or collaborative consumption.

Flexible employment forms and risks of poverty

• The potential of digitalisation and robotics to substitute human labour puts further pressure on classic employment forms. Employment biographies are increasingly characterised by short-term or project based work contracts. Platform-based work offers such as the gig economy or cloud work provide new opportunities but they offer also less security. 

• Individual trends concern among others multi-locality, labour shortage, collaborative working, gig-economy or new working precariat.

Resource shortage

• Mineral, metallic, fossil, but also natural resources become increasingly scarce. In addition, there are man-made ecological time bombs (e.g. nitrates and hormones in water, microplastics, nuclear waste, building materials that are difficult to recycle) which pose challenges concerning environmental pollution and the scarcity of natural resources, including water. 

• Individual trends concern among others new energy sources, loss of biodiversity, circular economy, sharing economy or efficient land use.

Climate change

• Extreme whether events such as heavy rainfall, floods, storms and heat waves become more common. This makes urban areas increasingly vulnerable, and increases the need for adaptation measures to protect the local population, but also urban infrastructures. Damages through extreme whether events and protection measures come at high costs for urban areas. Individual trends concern among others green infrastructure, energy efficiency, climate change adaptation, sustainable lifestyles or climate refugees.

Refugees and migrants

• Violence, war, persecution, economic despair and natural disasters remain the main drivers of international migration. Labour migration is also on the rise, not at least as  qualified professionals are sought across international borders. Migration brings an increasing cultural diversity in urban areas and enormous integration demands. 

• Individual trends concern among others refugee waves, labour shortage, populism, nationalisation, urbanisation or cultural diversity.

Hyperdiversity

• An increasing pluralisation of society leads to an increasing diversity of lifestyles, cultures and religions meeting in a place. Highly individualised micro-markets are emerging. Less linear professional ‘multi-graphies’ contribute to hyper-diversity, including frequent career and job changes, sabbaticals and regular changes of roles, perspectives and locations. Refugees and migrants also reinforce the cultural pluralisation of the city. 

• Individual trends concern among others labour migration, digital lifestyles, gender equality, life in a bubble, diversified housing offers or multi-locality.

Democracy and participation under pressure

• Globalisation, digitisation and individualisation let the world appear as increasingly interconnected and complex. This can fuel increasing distrust of political and economic elites, and calls for strong autocratic leadership and simple solutions. At the same time, new technologies support the development of more (digital) participation in political processes. However, engagement is guided by NIMBY (no in my backyard) approaches of those who have the possibilities, abilities and competences to get themselves involved. 

• Individual trends concern among others network society, crowdfunding, fake news, deliberative democracy, liberative democracy or civi-tech.

Powershifts between politics and economy 

• Political control is being dismantled and state regulation is being pushed back. At the same time, democracy and citizens movements are growing stronger, calling for stronger political protection of common goods, communities, minorities and individual freedoms. At another level, mega-cities form networks, pursue policies contrary to their nation states and become actors of global influence. 

• Individual trends concern among others concentration of power, privatisation, beyond GDP or cities as global players.

Increasing need for flexibility and adaptability 

• Experience and routines become less and less reliable grounds for anticipating the future and informing decision making. The nature and scope of multiple crises increase, including the climate crisis, the threat of terrorism, refugee waves, pandemics and also crises of confidence. The need for more resilience leads to transformation processes at many levels. 

• Individual trends concern among others climate change, globalisation, polarisation or lifelong learning.

Digital lives

• Virtual worlds are making their way into the reality that surrounds us. Augmented reality, holography and 3D Internet evolve to levels which make it almost impossible to distinguish them visually and haptically. At the same time, the contradictory relationship to data security and privacy intensifies, even as digital systems are becoming more secure, transparent and decentralised. 

• Individual trends concern among others Internet of Things, blockchain, biometric recognition systems, cyber criminality, e-culture, fake news or darknet.

Algorithmisation of urban systems

• Urban spaces, from buildings to infrastructures and vehicles to everyday and household objects will be digitally connected. Real-time data and predictive analyses allow for better organisation of material and non-material flows in the cities and informed decision making. 

• Individual trends concern among others smart cities, smart grids, e-governance, e-commerce artificial intelligence or digital simulation and planning processes.

Changing mobility needs and offers 

• A more mobile population, an increasing variety of vehicles and more densely populated urban areas require efficient solutions for the growing and differentiated traffic flows. In urban centres, owning a vehicle becomes less important. It is a place´s mobility promise that is decisive. This requires good infrastructure and multimodal mobility chains. 

• Individual trends concern among others autonomous vehicles, rural-urban divide, shared mobility, last mile logistics or mobility as a service.

Spatial polarisation 

• There are increasing concentration processes and a polarisation of the cities. This threatens the well-being and cohesion. Residents value successful places with high urban quality of life with a high experiential value. Unsuccessful cities are threatened by a loss of importance, commercially and as places of cultural and social exchange. Individual trends concern among others affordable housing, urbanisation, rural-urban divide, social fragmentation or densification.

This was a very short summary of the 15 trend molecules elaborated in the context of Stadt von übermorgen. Each of them brings together a richness and complexity of highly interdependent individual trend and provides insights for targeted discussions of the cities of tomorrow. The full report (Abre numa nova janela) is available on German.

by Kai Böhme