Forks in the road to cohesion policy post-2027

May 2025

As Europe prepares for the next multiannual financial framework (MFF), the future of cohesion policy is uncertain. The political context, shape and financial volume of future EU cohesion policies and instruments for achieving the Treaty's economic, social and territorial cohesion objectives are under discussion. This includes lessons learnt from cohesion policy to date, including the recovery and resilience facility (RRF).

At present, the debate on the future is still open. Much will depend on the European Commission’s initial proposals, which are expected in summer 2025, and subsequent negotiations with member states and co-legislators.

Several potential bifurcation points are emerging, each capable of nudging the policy towards either incremental evolution or radical transformation. Understanding these potential shifts is crucial for anyone concerned about how the EU will support its regions in the coming decades.

Performance-based cohesion. A further shift towards a results-oriented cohesion policy appears inevitable. Inspired by the RRF, future cohesion funding may increasingly depend on achieving clear milestones and targets rather than merely reporting costs. While performance-based financing is already possible within cohesion policy – via tools such as Simplified Cost Options (SCOs) or Financing Not Linked to Costs (FNLC) – it is still not widely used. The upcoming discussions will likely centre on establishing robust performance indicators and frameworks, potentially at the level of Member States, programmes, or individual operations. Another question is whether the focus will be on outputs, results, or impacts.